H.R. 8283, Deterring American AI Model Theft Act of 2026

H.R. 8283 would require federal agencies to identify foreign entities that illicitly access technical characteristics of U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) models for the purpose of replicating, developing, training, or improving another AI model. The bill would require the Department of Commerce to share information on such threats with U.S. owners of AI models. The bill also would require the Department of Commerce and the Department of State to report to the Congress on the effectiveness of federal efforts to mitigate threats to domestic AI models.

In addition, under the bill, any foreign entities that illicitly access AI models owned by U.S. entities would be subject to export controls and sanctions.

On the basis of information about similar federal programs that share information on threats with nonfederal entities, CBO estimates that maintaining online platforms to collect and share threat indicators, and preparing the required reports would increase agency workloads by the equivalent of five full-time employees. Operating expenses and compensation for those employees would cost $35 million over the 2026-2031 period. Such spending would be subject to the availability of appropriated funds.

The estimated budgetary effects of the legislation are shown in Table 1. The costs of the legislation fall within budget functions 050 (national defense) and 150 (international affairs).

In CBO’s estimation, enacting H.R. 8283 would increase the number of export licenses that would be denied. As a result, more people and entities would be subject to civil or criminal penalties for violating U.S. export laws. Enacting the bill also could increase the number of people found in violation of existing sanctions programs. Penalties for violating export laws and sanctions are recorded as revenues, and a portion of those penalties can be spent without further appropriation. Because CBO expects that very few additional people and entities would be affected, CBO estimates that enacting the bill would have insignificant effects on revenues and direct spending and would reduce net deficits by less than $500,000 over the 2026-2036 period.

H.R. 8283 would impose a private-sector mandate as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA) by expanding the scope of authority for the Administration to regulate transactions between entities in the United States and foreign entities that would be subject to sanctions under the bill. That expansion would result in additional burdens on individuals and entities in the United States that are required to monitor and report on foreign transactions and to block access to certain assets owned by sanctioned entities. The bill also would prohibit transactions between entities in the United States and sanctioned parties that otherwise would be permitted under current law.

The cost of the mandate would be any income or profit lost as a result of the bill’s enactment. CBO expects that because a small number of people or entities would be affected, the loss of income from any incremental increase in restrictions imposed by the bill would be small as well. CBO estimates that the cost of the mandate would fall well below the annual threshold established in UMRA for private-sector mandates ($214 million in 2026, adjusted annually for inflation).

H.R. 8283 contains no intergovernmental mandates as defined in UMRA.

The CBO staff contacts for this estimate are Aldo Prosperi (for federal costs) and Brandon Lever (for mandates). The estimate was reviewed by Christina Hawley Anthony, Deputy Director of Budget Analysis.