S. 2978, Designating the Russian Federation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism Act

S. 2978 would require the Department of State to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism unless it can certify to the Congress that Ukrainian children kidnapped and deported by Russia have been returned and that Russia has stopped attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure in Europe and Ukraine. That designation could be rescinded by the department after it certifies that those conditions have been met.

Designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism would trigger U.S. sanctions against the country and restrict U.S. assistance and exports to Russia. If the enactment of the bill leads the Administration to broaden existing sanctions or restrictions on Russia, certain transactions such as exports of arms and other sensitive items would be blocked. Any person or entity violating those prohibitions would be subject to civil or criminal monetary penalties. Such penalties are recorded as revenues, and a portion can be spent without further appropriation.

The United States has imposed a broad range of sanctions and restrictions on Russia. As a result, CBO estimates any additional sanctions or restrictions imposed under the bill would affect a small number of people. Thus, enacting S.2978 would have insignificant effects on revenues and direct spending, and would, on net, reduce deficits by less than $500,000 over the 2026-2035 period.

On the basis of information about certifications similar to those required by S. 2978, CBO estimates that implementing those requirements would cost less than $500,000 over the 2026-2030 period. Such spending would be subject to the availability of appropriated funds.

The CBO staff contact for this estimate is Sunita D’Monte. The estimate was reviewed by Christina Hawley Anthony, Deputy Director of Budget Analysis.