An Update to the Demographic Outlook, 2025 to 2055

Summary

The Congressional Budget Office periodically updates its demographic outlook to reflect recent developments and changes in laws and policies. The agency last published its demographic projections in January 2025.1 Since then, CBO has incorporated new data and reduced its estimates of net immigration over the 2025–2033 period and fertility over the 2025–2055 period.2

Administrative actions taken since January 20, 2025, are the largest factor decreasing CBO’s projections of the number of immigrants in the country. The 2025 reconciliation act (Public Law 119-21) also decreases that number. (For information about how that law affects the population, see Box 1.)

CBO now projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 367 million people in 2055. It will be smaller and grow more slowly over the next 30 years, on average, than the agency previously projected it would.3 Those changes stem from lower projected net immigration through 2033 and lower fertility rates over the 2025–2055 period than the agency projected in January. In CBO’s current projections, the population in 2035 is 4.5 million people smaller (or 1.2 percent) than it was projected to be in the agency’s January projections. That difference grows to 5.4 million people (or 1.5 percent) in 2055. The population contains fewer people ages 25 to 54—the age group that is most likely to participate in the labor force—than the agency previously projected. Deaths are projected to exceed births in 2031, two years earlier than previously projected.

CBO’s population projections are highly uncertain, especially in the later years of the 2025–2055 period. If rates of fertility, mortality, or net immigration are higher or lower than CBO projects, the resulting population will differ in size and composition from the one described here. For example, immigration could differ significantly from CBO’s projections because of future legislative or administrative changes, which are not incorporated into the current projections. The effects of such differences would be larger in later years because the differences would compound over time.

Population

In CBO’s projections, the population grows at an average rate of 0.2 percent per year (see Figure 1). That rate is less than one-fifth the average annual growth rate seen from 1975 to 2024, when it was 0.9 percent per year. The annual number of births is projected to exceed the annual number of deaths through 2030. Those net births account for about one-quarter of projected population growth over the 2025–2030 period; net immigration accounts for the rest. Beginning in 2031, annual deaths exceed annual births in CBO’s projections, and net immigration is projected to more than account for the population growth from 2031 to 2055.

As a result of the downward revisions to net immigration and fertility rates, the agency now projects that the population will grow more slowly over the next 30 years than the agency projected it would in January. (For more information about those revisions, see “Total Net Immigration” and “Fertility” below.) In CBO’s current projections, the population will be 4.5 million people smaller (or 1.2 percent) in 2035 and 5.4 million people smaller (or 1.5 percent) in 2055 than the population was in the agency’s projections in January. Additionally, the number of deaths is now projected to exceed the number of births in 2031, two years earlier than the agency previously projected.

Downward revisions to net immigration and CBO’s projected fertility rates also result in fewer people age 54 or younger than CBO projected in January. CBO now estimates that there will be 1.9 million fewer people (or 1.9 percent) age 24 or younger and 2.1 million fewer people (or 1.4 percent) ages 25 to 54 in 2035 (see Figure 2). The reduction to the population age 24 or younger and ages 25 to 54 accounts for 42 percent and 46 percent, respectively, of the total reduction of the projected population in that year.

To produce an estimate of the size of the labor force, CBO used a projection of the civilian noninstitutionalized population age 16 or older that is based on data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).4 In 2025, that population is 1.3 million people larger than CBO previously projected because of the January 2025 population control adjustment that BLS incorporated in its population estimates (see Figure 3).5 CBO’s projection of the civilian noninstitutionalized population is smaller and grows more slowly from 2026 to 2035 than it did in CBO’s January projections. That reduction stems from reductions to the agency’s projection of net immigration over the next several years and includes the number of people estimated to be in detention as a result of the 2025 reconciliation act (see Box 1).

Total Net Immigration

To develop its overall projections of net immigration, CBO grouped people into three categories:

• LPR+, which consists of lawful permanent residents (LPRs) and people who are eligible to apply to become LPRs on the basis of their current immigration status, such as asylees and refugees.
• INA nonimmigrants, which consist of people admitted as nonimmigrants under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), such as students and temporary workers.
• Other foreign nationals, which consist of people in the United States who are not in the first two categories and who have not subsequently become U.S. citizens or received LPR, asylee, or nonimmigrant status. The category includes people who entered the United States illegally and people who were allowed to enter through the use of parole authority and who may be awaiting proceedings in immigration court.

CBO now estimates that net immigration will be smaller from 2025 to 2033 than it projected in January. In the agency’s current projections, total net immigration is 1.6 million people smaller in 2025, 960,000 people smaller in 2026, and 160,000 people smaller each year, on average, from 2027 to 2033.

The reduction to total net immigration stems mainly from lower net immigration of people in the other-foreign- national category. CBO now projects that net immigration in that category will be 1.4 million people smaller in 2025 and 870,000 people smaller in 2026 than the agency previously projected. That difference averages 260,000 people per year from 2027 to 2033 (see Figure 4).

Net immigration of people in the INA nonimmigrant category is also smaller in 2025 and 2026 (by 210,000 people and 90,000 people, respectively) than CBO projected in January. From 2027 to 2033, net immigration of people in that category is larger than the agency previously projected by 110,000 people per year, on average. Through 2033, CBO’s projections of net immigration in the LPR+ category are unchanged from the agency’s January projections.

After 2033, total net immigration is 40,000 people larger, per year, than CBO previously projected. That increase stems entirely from upward revisions to CBO’s projection of net immigration of people in the INA nonimmigrant category, which includes students and temporary workers. Net immigration of people in the LPR+ and other-foreign-national categories after 2033 is essentially unchanged from CBO’s previous projections.

Net Immigration of Other Foreign Nationals

In developing its updated population projections, CBO reduced its projection of immigration of other foreign nationals in response to recent administrative actions.

The other-foreign-national category includes three main groups of people:

• People who entered the United States illegally and who have not obtained a permanent legal status,
• People who were permitted to enter the country lawfully through the use of parole authority and who may be awaiting proceedings in immigration court, and
• People who previously resided in the United States legally in a temporary status but who remained in the country after that legal status expired.6

In this report, net immigration of people in the other- foreign-national category in a given year consists of people who join that category upon their arrival from foreign countries, plus people already living in the United States who move into that category when their temporary legal status expires, minus people who move out of the other-foreign-national category by emigrating, being removed, or obtaining a legal immigration status.

CBO now projects that 290,000 more people will move out of the other-foreign-national category than will move into it in 2025, meaning that net immigration of other foreign nationals will equal −290,000 people in that year. That is significantly lower than CBO’s previous projection for that year (1.1 million people) and what CBO estimates occurred in recent years. (On average, net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category was 1.8 million people from 2021 to 2024.)

CBO projects that after 2025, net immigration of other foreign nationals will generally increase, as the number of immigrants entering that category returns to amounts consistent with their long-run historical average. In 2026, net immigration in that category increases to −220,000 people. In 2027, the net flow is smaller (−230,000 people) as removals and detentions resulting from the 2025 reconciliation act rise. After 2027, net immigration of other foreign nationals increases again, reaching −60,000 people in 2030 and 150,000 people in 2035. Net immigration of people in that category remains at that level through 2045 and then grows at the same rate as the overall population through 2055.

Projections of net immigration of people in the other- foreign-national category are uncertain for many reasons. For example, immigration could differ significantly from CBO’s projections because of future legislative or administrative changes, which are not incorporated into the current projections. Additionally, there is significant uncertainty about how many people in this category will be removed from the interior of the United States. Changing conditions in immigrants’ countries of origin could also significantly affect immigration and emigration. Finally, information about the other-foreign- national category is hard to obtain. CBO will continue to evaluate new information as it becomes available.

CBO’s Projection of Net Immigration of Other Foreign Nationals, 2025

CBO projects that in 2025, more people will leave the other-foreign-national category than enter it, and net immigration in that category will equal −290,000 people. By comparison, CBO estimates that net immigration in that category averaged −130,000 people from 2010 to 2019, 830,000 people in 2021, 2.0 million people in 2022, 2.4 million people in 2023, and 1.8 million people in 2024.

CBO’s estimates of net immigration of other foreign nationals are based on publicly available data and information from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Those data show that in early 2025, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials—officers in the Border Patrol working between ports of entry and officers in the Office of Field Operations (OFO) working at ports of entry—encountered fewer people attempting to enter the United States than they did in each of the previous four years. Additionally, most people attempting to enter the country are now required to wait outside the country for their date in immigration court, and certain humanitarian parole programs have been cancelled.

To calculate net immigration of other foreign nationals in 2025, CBO first projected the total number of such immigrants expected to enter the United States or overstay their temporary status in that year. The agency then subtracted the number of other foreign nationals projected to emigrate, be removed, or obtain a permanent legal immigration status in 2025.

Projections of People Entering the Other-Foreign-National Category. CBO estimates that 510,000 people will enter the other-foreign-national category in 2025. Of that total, 20,000 people are expected to enter the United States between official points of entry and be released into the country by CBP officials; 60,000 people are expected to enter at official points of entry and be released into the country; 150,000 people are expected to enter without encountering a CBP official; and 285,000 people are expected to have entered legally in a temporary status but overstayed their term of residency. CBO’s estimate of people entering the other-foreign- national category in 2025 is 2.1 million people lower than what the agency estimates occurred in 2024 (see Figure 5).

People Arriving Between Official Ports of Entry. In 2025, a total of 20,000 immigrants will be released into the United States after encountering a CBP official between official ports of entry, CBO projects. Nearly all of those people will be encountered and released at the southern border.

The number of people who were released into the United States after encountering a CBP official between official ports of entry slowed from 80,000 people per month from January to May 2024 to 20,000 people per month from June to December 2024, following an executive order in June of that year that temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border. Releases have continued to decline in 2025, equaling 7,000 people in January, 1,000 people in February, and 1,000 people per month, on average, from March to June.7

CBO’s estimate of 20,000 people arriving between official ports of entry in 2025 is smaller than what CBO estimates occurred in 2024 (570,000 people) because of two executive actions:

• Executive Order 14165 reinstated the policy of Migrant Protection Protocols. That policy requires people who wish to apply for asylum to return to the territory from which they came.8
• Proclamation 10888 suspended all border entries, including entries by people seeking asylum.9

Before those executive actions were taken, people who arrived between official ports of entry were generally released into the interior of the United States with a notice to appear in immigration court, humanitarian parole, or both while they awaited their immigration proceedings.

People Arriving at Official Ports of Entry. CBO projects that OFO will release 60,000 immigrants who arrive at official ports of entry in 2025; more than half of those were released in January. From January to June, OFO released 50,000 people: 30,000 people with a notice to appear in immigration court and 20,000 people with parole.10 Most of those releases occurred in January, when 30,000 immigrants were released. Thereafter, releases fell significantly: 3,800 people were released in February and 2,200, on average, were released per month from March to June. In CBO’s projections, 2,200 releases continue to occur in each month from July to December, totaling an additional 13,000 releases over that period.

By contrast, CBO estimates that 960,000 people were released in 2024. That is 900,000 people more than CBO estimates will be released in 2025. Fewer people will be released in 2025 because Executive Order 14165 ended the use of the CBPOne app to schedule appointments with CBP officials as well as the Processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans (CHNV) parole program. In fiscal year 2024, about 45,000 appointments per month were scheduled using the CBPOne app, and many of those appointments resulted in people’s release into the country with a notice to appear in immigration court, humanitarian parole, or both. Additionally, 24,000 people entered the country each month that year under the CHNV parole program.

People Not Encountering a CBP Official. CBO projects that 150,000 immigrants in the other-foreign-national category will cross a U.S. border in 2025 without encountering a CBP official. That total comprises two groups of people. The first consists of people who are directly or indirectly observed making an unlawful entry, who are not turned back or apprehended, and who are no longer being pursued by the Border Patrol.11 The second is made up of people who cross a U.S. border without being seen or detected. CBO projects that the number of people in the first group will equal levels consistent with the average level over the 2010–2019 period.12 Specifically, CBO estimates that there will be 130,000 people in that group in 2025.

The Chief of the Border Patrol testified to the Congress that the number of people in the first group probably undercounts the total number of immigrants who do not encounter a CBP official by 10 percent to 20 percent.13 To account for people who crossed the border without being seen or detected by CBP officials (the second group) in 2025, CBO adjusted its estimate of 130,000 people upward by 15 percent, to 150,000 people in that year.

CBO’s current estimate of 150,000 people in 2025 is lower than the agency’s estimate for 2024 (800,000 people). In the agency’s assessment, increased immigration enforcement will reduce the number of people who attempt to cross or who successfully cross the U.S. border without encountering a CBP official. Information about the number of people who enter the country without encountering a CBP official is scarce. CBO’s estimate of that group in 2025 is subject to significant uncertainty.

People Overstaying Their Temporary Status. CBO projects that 285,000 people who resided in the United States legally in 2024 in a temporary status will remain in 2025 after that legal status expires. (That projection is unchanged from CBO’s projection in January.) CBO developed that estimate using data from DHS, which indicates that 510,000 people may have overstayed their temporary status in fiscal year 2023.14 CBO revised that number down because some people who overstay their visa do not stay long.

In CBO’s assessment, a sizable fraction of people who overstay their temporary status do so for only a short time. DHS reported that 46 percent of people who were estimated to have overstayed their visa at the end of fiscal year 2016 were no longer in that category in May 2018 because they had either left the United States or obtained a permanent legal status in the intervening period.15 In other words, DHS estimates that only 54 percent of people who had overstayed their visa at the end of 2016 were still overstaying their visa 20 months later.

Projections of People Leaving the Other-Foreign-National Category. In CBO’s assessment, a total of 800,000 people are expected to leave the other-foreign- national category in 2025 by either emigrating from the United States, obtaining a permanent legal status, or being removed from the country. That total is lower than the number that CBO estimated to have left the category in 2024 (see Figure 6).

Voluntary Emigration. CBO estimates that 430,000 people are expected to voluntarily emigrate in 2025, which is 160,000 fewer people than how many CBO estimated in 2024. That estimate reflects projected changes in how people will respond to increased enforcement and the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for some people who had it.16

CBO’s projected rates of emigration in 2025 of other foreign nationals vary depending on how long such immigrants have resided in the United States. Four percent of other foreign nationals are projected to emigrate within the first year of their arrival, an additional 2 percent within two years, and another 2 percent within three years. An additional 1 percent are projected to emigrate in the fourth year after their arrival and each year thereafter. Those rates are three-quarters of what CBO generally expects. In the agency’s assessment, increased immigration enforcement makes it less likely that people will voluntarily leave the country because that enforcement will make it more difficult for them to reenter later.17

CBO also estimates that 800 people whose TPS has been terminated will voluntarily leave the country in 2025.18 CBO developed that estimate by first estimating the number of people whose TPS has been terminated and who do not have another legal status to protect them from removal. (That group includes people who have a pending application for asylum.) CBO estimates that that group accounts for about 50 percent of TPS-holders. CBO then multiplied the number of people in that group by a variable rate of emigration (determined by the number of years since their TPS was terminated and on the basis of how recently they arrived). For people who arrived within the past 10 years, CBO estimated that 8 percent of people will voluntarily emigrate in the year that their TPS is cancelled. That rate falls to 4 percent in the first and second years following termination. For people who arrived more than 10 years ago, CBO estimates that they would emigrate at half of those rates.

People Obtaining Permanent Legal Status. CBO estimates that 225,000 other foreign nationals will obtain a permanent legal status in 2025 (that estimate is unchanged from CBO’s projection in January). That group includes people who are (or will become) immediate relatives of U.S. citizens, people who are not immediate relatives of U.S. citizens but who are eligible for a permanent legal status under a family preference, people who are granted asylum, and people who qualify under the Cuban Adjustment Act, as amended.19

Interior Removals. CBO also projects that 140,000 people from the other-foreign-national category will be removed from the interior of the United States in 2025.20 That estimate does not include the effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, which CBO estimates will affect interior removals beginning in 2026 (see Box 1).

CBO estimated the number of interior removals in 2025 using government data provided by ICE in response to a Freedom of Information Act request to the Deportation Data Project about the number of monthly removals through June 26, 2025.21 On the basis of those data, CBO estimates that there were 70,000 removals through June 2025, or about 400 per day. In CBO’s projections, that rate of removal continues throughout the remainder of the year.

CBO’s Projection of Net Immigration of Other Foreign Nationals, 2026 to 2055

In CBO’s projections, net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category will generally increase after 2025, and in 2035, it will reach a level of net immigration that is closer to historical experience. In particular, net immigration in the other-foreign-national category will rise from −290,000 people in 2025 to −220,000 people in 2026. It will fall to −230,000 people in 2027. That decrease stems from higher projected removals from the interior as a result of the 2025 reconciliation act. From 2028 to 2035, net immigration of people in that category increases, reaching 150,000 people in 2035 and remaining at that level through 2045. In the last decade (2046 to 2055) of CBO’s 30-year projection period, net immigration of other foreign nationals grows at the same rate as the total population. That growth rate is slower in CBO’s current projections than it was in the agency’s January projections. As a result, net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category in the last decade of the projection period is smaller in the agency’s current projections than it was in its January projections.

Net Immigration of INA Nonimmigrants

CBO now projects that net immigration of people in the INA nonimmigrant category will total −120,000 people in 2025 (210,000 fewer people than the agency projected in January for that year).22 That difference stems mainly from lower inflows of students (that is, fewer students entering the country). CBO projects that after 2025, gross inflows of INA nonimmigrants will return to their historical levels. From 2025 to 2029, outflows (that is, the number of people leaving the INA nonimmigrant category) will be reduced because of lower inflows of INA nonimmigrants in 2025, CBO projects. As a result, net immigration in that category is projected to rise from zero people in 2026 to 270,000 people in 2029. After 2029, net immigration of people in that category is projected to fall, reaching 140,000 people in 2035, largely driven by increased outflows of INA nonimmigrants (as those who arrived in previous years begin to leave).

CBO’s projection of net immigration of INA nonimmigrants in 2025 is lower than its estimate for 2024 because recent administrative actions have affected the processing and issuance of student visas. On May 27, 2025, the State Department paused the scheduling of new visa appointments for F-1 and J-1 visa applicants.23 In June, the scheduling of new visa appointments was resumed but with enhanced screening of applicants and their social media accounts.24 In May 2025, 100,000 student visas were issued, 20,000 (or 17 percent) fewer than were issued in May 2024. In CBO’s assessment, the number of student visas issued remains lower through the end of 2025, totaling 520,000 (or 33 percent fewer than were issued in 2024). Fewer student visa issuances result in lower net immigration of INA nonimmigrants in 2025; that, in turn, would reduce the number of temporary workers still in the United States four years later because some of those students would have remained in the country after graduation.

CBO’s projection of net immigration of INA nonimmigrants after 2026 is higher than it was in the agency’s January projections. The difference stems from two factors: first, a change in the historical data that CBO used, and second, a new method for projecting net immigration of people in the category. In CBO’s current projections, the agency uses population estimates from DHS’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics as its historical estimates through 2019 (the most recent year for which data are available).25 Those historical data form the basis of CBO’s projections of INA nonimmigrants after 2019.

CBO also uses a new method to project net immigration of INA nonimmigrants. The agency first estimates historical gross inflows and outflows of INA nonimmigrants using DHS’s population estimates, visa issuance data, and nonimmigrant admissions data. Then, it projects net immigration by projecting gross inflows and outflows separately. CBO projects that gross inflows will return to their historical average over the 2015–2019 period and projects gross outflows on the basis of their historical relationship with inflows.

Net Immigration of People in the LPR+ Category

In CBO’s projections, net immigration of people in the LPR+ category makes up the largest component of total net immigration from 2025 to 2055 (see Figure 7). Net immigration in that category increases from an average of 830,000 people per year over the 2025–2035 period to 870,000 people per year over the 2046–2055 period. Through 2045, that projection is unchanged from January 2025. After 2045, net immigration of people in the LPR+ category is smaller than CBO projected in January 2025 because net immigration of people in that category is projected to grow at the same rate as the total population, which is slower than CBO projected previously.

Fertility

In CBO’s projections, fertility rates continue to be lower than the replacement rate—that is, the fertility rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration—which is 2.10 births per woman. The total fertility rate equals 1.60 births per woman in 2025, 1.58 in 2035, and 1.57 in 2055 (see Figure 8).26

CBO’s projections use the latest data about the fertility rate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the same method for projecting fertility rates that the agency used in January 2025. Partially because of updated historical data, CBO’s projected total fertility rate is now smaller over the 2025–2055 period. Additionally, the agency’s projections of the total fertility rate are responsive to changes in the composition of the population, which can occur through changes in net immigration. For example, the downward revision to net immigration in CBO’s current projections reduces the number of foreign-born women of childbearing age in the population. That results in a lower total fertility rate because the fertility rate for foreign-born women is projected to be higher than the rate for native-born women.

In CBO’s current projections, the total fertility rate equals 1.57 births per woman in 2055, lower than the 1.60 births per woman it was in the January projections. Combined, the smaller size and different composition of the population of women of childbearing age and the slightly lower total fertility rate result in fewer births in CBO’s current projections relative to the agency’s previous projections.

Mortality

Mortality rates generally continue to decline, causing life expectancy to increase, CBO projects.27 The projected average life expectancy at birth rises from 78.9 years in 2025 to 82.2 years in 2055.

To project mortality rates, CBO uses the latest historical estimates and the same method for projecting mortality rates that the agency used in January 2025. Projected mortality rates are roughly unchanged from those that CBO projected in January. Because the projected population is smaller, there are fewer deaths in most years in CBO’s current projections than there were in the agency’s January projections.

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1. 1. Congressional Budget Office, The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055 (January 2025), www.cbo.gov/publication/60875. Those population projections reflected laws and policies that were in place as of November 15, 2024.

2. 2. The projections reflect laws and policies that were in place as of July 31, 2025, and do not incorporate the effects of subsequent administrative actions or judicial decisions, including those affecting immigration. For an example of one such action, see Designation of Temporary Immigration Judges, 90 Fed. Reg. 41883 (August 28, 2025), https://tinyurl.com/4rkrc8v6.

3. 3. In this report, the population is defined as the population used for estimating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits, known as the Social Security area population. The Social Security area population includes all residents of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, as well as civilian residents of U.S. territories. It also includes federal civilian employees and members of the U.S. armed forces living abroad and their dependents, U.S. citizens living abroad, and noncitizens living abroad who are eligible for Social Security benefits on the basis of their earnings while in the United States.

4. 4. The civilian noninstitutionalized population consists of people age 16 or older who are not on active duty with the armed forces, in penal or mental institutions, or in homes for the elderly or infirm. People held in detention facilities are excluded from the agency’s projections of the civilian noninstitutionalized population aged 16 or older.

5. 5. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Current Population Survey, “Adjustments to Household Survey Population Estimates in January 2025” (technical documentation, February 2025), https://tinyurl.com/53s23jbb.

6. 6. Parole authority permits people to enter the United States temporarily for urgent humanitarian reasons or for significant public benefit. It is determined on a case-by-case basis.

7. 7. Customs and Border Protection, Office of Field Operations, “U.S. Border Patrol—Dispositions and Transfers: USBP Monthly Southwest Border Encounters by Processing Disposition” (accessed July 31, 2025), https://tinyurl.com/yc65yxmk.

8. 8. Executive Order 14165, “Securing Our Borders,” Presidential Document, 90 Fed. Reg. 8467 (January 30, 2025), https://tinyurl.com/46mwu4af.

9. 9. Proclamation 10888, “Guaranteeing the States Protection Against Invasion,” Presidential Document, 90 Fed. Reg. 8333 (January 29, 2025), https://tinyurl.com/3ah5zpwy.

10. 10. The estimates in this report of the number of people released by OFO with a notice to appear or parole reflect OFO’s disposition categories “Paroled” and “Notice to Appear.” For further explanation of those categories, see Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, “About the Data: Stopping ‘Inadmissibles’ at U.S. Ports of Entry” (September 5, 2024), https://tinyurl.com/465rp5a5. Some people are released by OFO with both a notice to appear and parole.

11. 11. That group is sometimes referred to as “got aways.” For the definition of “got away,” see 6 U.S.C. § 223(a)(3), http://tinyurl.com/5n7uv2um.

12. 12. DHS publishes estimated counts of people in the first group, but the most recent available estimates are for fiscal year 2021. See Department of Homeland Security, Border Security Metrics Report: 2022 (July 3, 2023), https://tinyurl.com/4uyrsubw.

13. 13. Testimony of Raul L. Ortiz, Chief, Border Patrol, before the House Committee on Homeland Security, Failure by Design: Examining Secretary Mayorkas’ Border Crisis (March 15, 2023), time stamp 1:08:15, http://tinyurl.com/3tbv2w65.

14. 14. Those people are identified in the data as “suspected in-country overstays.” See Customs and Border Protection, Entry/Exit Overstay Report: Fiscal Year 2023 Report to Congress (August 2024), Table 1, https://tinyurl.com/2s4nkyvz.

15. 15. Department of Homeland Security, Fiscal Year 2017 Entry/Exit Overstay Report (October 2018), Table 9, http://tinyurl.com/ymd2hz9r.

16. 16. In 2025, the TPS designations for seven countries were terminated: Afghanistan, Cameroon, Haiti, Honduras, Nepal, Nicaragua, and Venezuela (2023 designation). Some of those terminations have been challenged in court and are pending litigation. CBO includes all designations that have been terminated in its analysis of voluntary emigration.

17. 17. Douglas S. Massey, Jorge Durand, and Karen A. Pren, “Border Enforcement and Return Migration by Documented and Undocumented Mexicans,” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, vol. 41, no. 7 (2015), pp. 1015–1040, https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2014.986079; and Rene R. Rocha and others, “Policy Climates, Enforcement Rates, and Migrant Behavior: Is Self‐Deportation a Viable Immigration Policy?” Policy Studies Journal, vol. 42, no. 1 (February 2014), pp. 79–100, https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12043.

18. 18. That number rises to 7,300 in 2026 and 4,100 in 2027.

19. 19. Cuban Adjustment Act, P.L. 89-732, 80 Stat. 1161 (1966) (codified as amended at 8 U.S.C. § 1255 note), http://tinyurl.com/2uzfpth.

20. 20. CBO did not estimate the number of removals from the country in 2024 or previous years.

21. 21. For more information, see Deportation Data Project, “Immigration and Customs Enforcement” (accessed July 31, 2025), https://deportationdata.org/data/ice.html.

22. 22. CBO’s projections incorporate information available as of July 31, 2025. They do not reflect the effects of subsequent administrative actions or judicial decisions, including the effects of a proposed rule that would replace the current “duration of status” framework—which allows some nonimmigrants to stay in the United States for as long as they satisfy the conditions of their visa—with fixed admission periods ending on specific dates. See Establishing a Fixed Time Period of Admission and an Extension of Stay Procedure for Nonimmigrant Academic Students, Exchange Visitors, and Representatives of Foreign Information Media, 90 Fed. Reg. 42070 (August 28, 2025), https://tinyurl.com/2wx922nj.

23. 23. F-1 (academic student) visas are issued for entry into the United States as a full-time student at an accredited college, university, seminary, conservatory, academic high school, elementary school, or other academic institution or in a language training program. J-1 (exchange visitor) visas are issued for approved individuals to participate in exchange visitor programs in the United States. Those exchange visitor programs encompass a broad set of activities, including au pair programs, internship programs, programs for visiting professors and research scholars, and others.

24. 24. Department of State, “Announcement of Expanded Screening and Vetting for Visa Applicants” (press release, June 18, 2025), https://tinyurl.com/z867phrx.

25. 25. Office of Immigration Statistics, Population Estimates of Nonimmigrants Residing in the United States: Fiscal Years 2017–2019 (Department of Homeland Security, May 2021), https://tinyurl.com/wc8z856x.

26. 26. The total fertility rate represents the average number of children that a woman would have if, in each year of her life, she experienced the birth rates observed or assumed for that year and if she survived her entire childbearing period. (CBO estimates that period as ages 14 to 49.)

27. 27. Life expectancy in a given year is the amount of time a person would expect to survive on the basis of that year’s mortality rates for people of various ages. It is sometimes referred to as period life expectancy.