On a preliminary basis, the Congressional Budget Office and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation estimate that enacting H.R. 1, as passed by the Senate on July 1, 2025, would decrease deficits by $0.4 trillion, relative to the budget enforcement baseline for consideration in the Senate. Compared with CBO's January 2025 baseline budget projections, it would increase deficits over the 2025‑2034 period by $3.4 trillion.
On June 27, 2025, the Senate filed an amendment in the nature of a substitute to H.R. 1, as passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025. On June 28, 2025, CBO published its estimate for that amendment relative to the budget enforcement baseline for consideration in the Senate. On June 29, 2025, CBO published its estimate for the amendment relative to CBO's January 2025 baseline projections.
The language of the substitute amendment was subsequently modified during consideration on the floor of the Senate.
CBO estimates that the amendments adopted during consideration on the Senate floor, relative to the language filed on June 27, would:
Increase outlays by about $90 billion;
Decrease revenues by roughly $20 billion; and
Increase deficits by about $110 billion.
Those estimated changes are the same compared with either the budget enforcement baseline for consideration in the Senate or CBO's January 2025 budget baseline projections.
