This slide deck describes the main mechanisms in CBO's dynamic analysis of H.R. 1, explains the changes to SNAP, and explains the macroeconomic effects and budgetary feedback of those changes.
Summary
CBO estimates that Subtitle A of Title I in H.R. 1 would reduce federal spending by $287 billion over the 2025–2034 period. (That total excludes the Medicaid budgetary effects of Section 10009 that are included in the published total.) The budgetary feedback arising from macroeconomic effects would reduce the federal deficit by an additional $22 billion over the 2025–2034 period, primarily because lower federal deficits would "crowd in" private investment and lower interest rates. (This estimate includes only the changes to net interest costs stemming from changes to interest rates on the baseline projection of federal debt. By long-standing convention, estimates under House Rule XIII(8) do not include any increases or decreases in interest payments on the federal debt that would arise from an estimated change in borrowing needs. Consistent with that approach, the estimate of the budgetary feedback does not include the decreases in interest payments that would arise from net decreases in borrowing needs that would result from enacting SNAP-related provisions.)
Including budgetary feedback from macroeconomic effects, SNAP-related policies in the bill would reduce the federal deficit by $309 billion over the 2025–2034 period. When the budgetary feedback from macroeconomic effects and the decreases in interest payments on lower federal debt that would arise from the estimated decline in borrowing needs are accounted for, SNAP-related policies in the bill would reduce the federal deficit by $353 billion over the 2025–2034 period.
This slide deck describes the main mechanisms in CBO's dynamic analysis of H.R. 1, explains the changes to SNAP, and explains the macroeconomic effects and budgetary feedback of those changes.