The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055

At a Glance

The size of the U.S. population and its composition by age and sex have significant implications for the economy and the federal budget. For example, the number of people ages 25 to 54 affects the number of people who are employed, and the number of people age 65 or older affects the number of Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries.

In this report, the Congressional Budget Office describes its population projections, which underlie the baseline budget projections and economic forecast that the agency will publish in early 2025. The population projections reflect laws and policies that were in place as of November 15, 2024.

  • Population. The measure of population used in this report is the Social Security area population, which is relevant for estimating payroll taxes and benefits for Social Security. That population (which includes residents of U.S. states and territories, as well as U.S. citizens, federal employees, and service members living abroad) is projected to increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million in 2055. The part of the population age 65 or older is projected to grow more quickly than younger groups, causing the average age of the population to rise.
  • Population Growth. In CBO’s projections, the rate of population growth generally slows over the next 30 years, from an average of 0.4 percent a year between 2025 and 2035 to an average of 0.1 percent a year between 2036 and 2055. Net immigration becomes an increasingly important source of population growth. Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself.
  • Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population. The number of people age 16 or older who are not on active duty with the armed forces or in institutions is used to project the size of the labor force. CBO produced two projections of that population using differing data from federal agencies. Both projections are consistent with CBO’s projections of overall population growth.
  • Changes Since Last Year. The Social Security area population is now projected to grow more slowly over the next 30 years, and to be 2.8 percent smaller in 2054, than CBO projected last year. CBO increased its projections of the size of that population for 2025 to 2033 after incorporating recently available data from the 2020 census. After 2033, the increases stemming from those data are offset by reductions in CBO’s projections of fertility and net immigration. Since last year, CBO has lowered its projection of the total fertility rate over the long run from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 and incorporated differences in the fertility rates of women born in the United States and women born elsewhere. CBO also projects less net immigration in 2024 and most years thereafter than it projected last year. The change for 2024 largely reflects the consequences of a June 2024 executive order that temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border.

CBO’s projections of fertility, mortality, and net immigration rates are highly uncertain. Small differences between those projections and actual outcomes could compound over time and significantly alter the demographic picture by the end of the 30-year projection period.

Notes About This Report

Unless indicated otherwise, the years referred to in this report are calendar years. When fiscal years are mentioned, they are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end.

The population projections in this report reflect laws and policies that were in place as of November 15, 2024.

The underlying data for the figures in this report, as well as supplemental population projections, are posted with the report on CBO’s website (www.cbo.gov/publication/60875#data).

Definitions of terms used in this report are available in Appendix C.

The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055

The outlook for the economy and the federal budget depends on projected changes in the size and composition of the U.S. population. For instance, the number of people who are employed and paying taxes on their wages depends on the size of the population ages 25 to 54, and the number of beneficiaries of some federal programs (including Social Security and Medicare) depends on the size of the population age 65 or older. The Congressional Budget Office’s latest population projections reflect laws and policies that were in place as of November 15, 2024, and provide a benchmark for assessing how potential legislation, administrative actions, and judicial decisions affect the size and structure of the population.

To project the U.S. population, CBO starts with recent data and then estimates future rates of fertility, mortality, and net immigration (the number of people who migrate to the United States minus the number who leave). In this report, the population is defined as the population used for estimating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits, known as the Social Security area population.1

In CBO’s projections, the population increases from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million people in 2055, growing at an average rate of 0.2 percent per year. That rate is less than one-quarter of the average growth rate seen from 1975 to 2024 (0.9 percent per year). The annual number of births is projected to exceed the annual number of deaths through 2032. Those net births account for about one-sixth of projected population growth during that period; net immigration accounts for the rest. Beginning in 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births in CBO’s projections, and net immigration is projected to more than account for the population growth from 2033 to 2055. (That projection differs from those of other agencies in the near term; see Appendix A.)

CBO’s population projections are highly uncertain, especially in the later years of the 2025–2055 period. If rates of fertility, mortality, or net immigration were higher or lower than CBO projects, the resulting population would differ in size and composition from the one described here. The effects of such differences would be larger in later years because the differences would compound over time.

Population Growth and Contributing Factors

Percent

By 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births in CBO’s projections. After that, net immigration more than accounts for the projected population growth; without immigration, the U.S. population would shrink after 2033.

The Size and Age Composition of the Population

The population is projected to become older, on average, over the 2025–2055 period. In CBO’s projections, the number of people age 65 or older increases markedly during that period, and the growth of that group outpaces the growth of younger age groups.

Population Size, by Age Group

Millions of people

In CBO’s projections, the number of people age 65 or older grows more quickly than the number of people ages 25 to 54. That difference affects the number of people who are employed, because people age 65 or older are less likely to work and are generally eligible for Social Security and Medicare. In addition, the number of people age 24 or younger declines in CBO’s projections.

The Population Ages 25 to 64 Relative to the Population Age 65 or Older

Ratio

The ratio of people ages 25 to 64 to people age 65 or older will be 2.8 to 1 in 2025, CBO projects. That ratio is projected to decline to 2.2 to 1 by 2055.

Components of Population Growth

Population growth is determined by births, deaths, and net immigration. In CBO’s projections, fertility rates continue to be lower than the replacement rate—the fertility rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration—which is 2.1 births per woman. Mortality rates generally continue to decline, and immigration becomes an increasingly important source of overall population growth.

Fertility

CBO projects fertility rates on the basis of its assessment of past trends. For the 20 years before the 2007–2009 recession, the total fertility rate averaged 2.02 births per woman. After peaking at 2.12 in 2007, that rate has generally fallen, largely because of lower fertility rates among women ages 15 to 24. The total fertility rate was 1.64 births per woman in 2020 and declined slightly, to 1.62, in 2023 (the most recent year for which data were available when these projections were made). In CBO’s projections, the total fertility rate equals 1.62 births per woman in 2025, 1.60 in 2035, and 1.60 in 2055.

The fertility rate for women under 30 is projected to keep falling: from 0.79 births per woman in 2025 to 0.62 by 2055. The rate for women age 30 or older is projected to increase, from 0.84 births per woman in 2025 to 0.98 by 2055, in part because CBO expects women to delay bearing children until older ages.

CBO’s projections of fertility rates are subject to considerable uncertainty. If future trends in fertility differed from what CBO projects, the agency’s projections of overall fertility rates and the age distribution of mothers would change as well.

Fertility Rates, by Age Group

Births per woman

In CBO’s projections, fertility rates rise for women of older childbearing ages and fall for women of younger childbearing ages. That pattern is consistent with the recent trend of delays in childbearing.

Fertility, by Mother’s Place of Birth

In its current population projections, CBO projects different fertility rates for women in the United States who were born in this country and those who were born elsewhere. In CBO’s projections, the total fertility rate is the average of the rates for native-born and foreign-born women, weighted by the projected size of the populations of native- and foreign-born women of childbearing age (which CBO defines as ages 14 to 49). The fertility rate for native-born women is projected to equal 1.56 births per woman from 2025 to 2055. The fertility rate for foreign-born women is projected to decline from 1.88 births per woman in 2025 to 1.80 by 2035 and then stay at that rate through 2055.

To project fertility rates for foreign-born women, CBO used projections from the United Nations of fertility rates by country and estimates from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey of fertility rates for foreign-born women living in the United States.2 CBO used the United Nations’ projections of fertility rates for a group of countries that reflects the countries of origin of foreign-born women living in the United States. In CBO’s assessment, however, women who immigrate to the United States have different fertility rates than women who remain in those countries. Thus, CBO adjusted the United Nations’ projected rates using the difference between those rates and the estimated fertility rates from the latest available year of the American Community Survey for women living in the United States who were born in those countries.

Fertility Rates, by Mother’s Place of Birth

Births per woman

CBO projects a higher fertility rate for foreign-born women than for women born in the United States. Because native-born women greatly outnumber women who immigrate to the United States, the total fertility rate (which includes both groups) is closer to the native-born rate than to the foreign-born rate.

Mortality

In CBO’s projections, mortality rates decline, causing life expectancy to increase. The average life expectancy at birth rises from 78.9 years in 2025 to 82.3 years by 2055.

CBO projects mortality rates on the basis of historical trends and then makes adjustments to account for the effects of COVID-19. Since at least the early 20th century, mortality rates in the United States have generally declined (meaning that life expectancy has generally increased), and rates have fallen more quickly for younger adults than for older people. Since about 2010, however, the overall rate of decline has slowed, and mortality rates have increased for some groups, particularly young and middle-aged adults, because of such factors as drug overdoses, suicides, homicides, and transportation accidents.3

To account for those trends, CBO estimated that mortality rates (calculated for five-year age groups without including the effects of COVID-19) would change at roughly the same average rate from 2023 to 2027 that they did for each age group from 2010 to 2019. After 2027, mortality rates are projected to return to their more long-standing historical trends, declining at the average rate seen over the 1950–2019 period. That time frame includes the period of faster decline before 2010 and the period of slower decline and reversal that some groups experienced from 2010 to 2019. The net effect is a continued decline in mortality rates beyond 2027.

After projecting mortality rates on the basis of historical trends, CBO incorporated the effects of COVID-19 by increasing mortality rates through 2025, especially for older people (who are more likely to die from that illness). Although COVID-19 was a leading cause of death in recent years, the long-term trend of declining mortality rates more than offsets the projected effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

Mortality rates in the long term are uncertain because factors such as the evolution of medical technology and environmental conditions may have different effects in the future than they have had in the past. Another area of uncertainty is how long the recent slowing of the decline in mortality rates will continue.

Mortality Rate, Adjusted for Age and Sex

Deaths per 100,000 people

In CBO’s projections, mortality rates continue to decline from 2025 to 2055. As a result, life expectancy at birth is projected to increase from 78.9 years to 82.3 years over that period, and life expectancy at age 65 is projected to increase from 19.7 years to 21.8 years.

Net Immigration

For 2025 to 2045, CBO based its estimates of net immigration on its assessment of recent trends. After 2045, net immigration in a given year is projected to grow at roughly the same rate at which the overall population grew in the previous year, which is projected to average 0.04 percent annually.

CBO develops its projections of net immigration so they fall in the middle of the likely range of outcomes in the absence of new legislation or significant administrative or judicial changes. Several factors cause those projections to be uncertain. For example, changing conditions in immigrants’ countries of origin could significantly affect amounts of immigration. Estimates and projections of net immigration of people who enter the United States illegally are particularly uncertain because information about that group is hard to obtain. Immigration could differ significantly from CBO’s projections because of future legislative or administrative changes, which are not incorporated into the current projections. (For more information about CBO’s projections of net immigration, see Appendix B.)

Net Immigration

Millions of people

CBO estimates that the number of people who entered the United States minus the number who left totaled 2.8 million in 2022, 3.3 million in 2023, and 2.7 million in 2024—far exceeding the average net immigration, 920,000 people per year, seen from 2010 to 2019.

In CBO’s projections, net immigration totals 2.0 million people in 2025, 1.5 million in 2026, and an average of 1.1 million per year from 2027 to 2055.

Net Immigration, by Category

To develop its overall projections of net immigration, CBO groups people into three categories (described in more detail in Appendix C):

  • LPR+, which consists of lawful permanent residents (LPRs) and people who are eligible to apply to become LPRs on the basis of their current status, such as asylees and refugees.
  • INA nonimmigrants, which consist of people admitted as nonimmigrants under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), such as students and temporary workers.
  • Other foreign nationals, which consist of people in the United States who are not in the first two categories and who have not subsequently become U.S. citizens or received LPR, asylee, or nonimmigrant status. That category includes people who entered the United States illegally and people who were allowed to enter through the use of parole authority and who may be awaiting proceedings in immigration court.

CBO’s projections of total net immigration from 2021 to 2028 are driven primarily by its projections of net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category (for more information about CBO’s projections for that category, see Appendix B). In CBO’s estimation, annual net immigration of people in that category was greater from 2021 to 2023 than it was in recent decades. In 2024, net immigration of other foreign nationals declined from the 2023 level, mainly because of a June 2024 executive order that temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border. CBO estimates that without that executive order, net immigration of other foreign nationals in 2024 would have been larger by about 400,000 people (or 22 percent).

Many of CBO’s projections are based on past long-term averages. CBO projects that net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category will continue to decline after 2024, reaching a level consistent with historical experience in 2028 and remaining at roughly that level through the rest of the 30-year projection period.

Net Immigration, by Category

Millions of people

In CBO’s projections, net immigration of lawful permanent residents, refugees, and asylees (LPR+) increases from an average of 830,000 per year over the 2025–2035 period to 870,000 per year over the 2046–2055 period. Net immigration of people in the INA nonimmigrant category averages 90,000 per year from 2025 to 2055. Net immigration of other foreign nationals is 1.1 million in 2025, averages 500,000 per year in 2026 and 2027, and averages 150,000 per year thereafter.

Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population

CBO projects two measures of the civilian noninstitutionalized population—which consists of people age 16 or older who are not on active duty with the armed forces, in penal or mental institutions, or in homes for the elderly or infirm. The first projection (which CBO calls Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection) incorporates revisions made by the Census Bureau to estimates of the population through 2020 and reflects CBO’s estimates of population growth thereafter. That projection is consistent with CBO’s assessment of net immigration since 2020.

The second projection (BLS Through 2024 Plus CBO Projection) is based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) through 2024. After 2024, that projection transitions to equal the Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection. CBO uses that second projection of the civilian noninstitutionalized population to project the size of the labor force.

Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection

For 1980 to 2020, the Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection of the civilian noninstitutionalized population is based on population estimates produced by the Census Bureau. Those estimates include past data revisions that begin with the date of the most recent decennial census; such revisions are consistent within a decade but are discontinuous in the year of a decennial census. To create a consistent series from 1980 to 2020, CBO smoothed over the discontinuities using a method that the Census Bureau uses to produce estimates for periods between censuses (known as intercensal estimates).4

After 2020, the Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection of the civilian noninstitutionalized population grows at roughly the same rate as CBO’s projections of the total population. As a result, from 2020 to 2024, the Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection is larger than the estimates of the civilian noninstitutionalized population published by BLS and the Census Bureau.5 CBO estimated faster population growth during those years—mainly because of larger estimates of net immigration—than is reflected in published estimates of the civilian noninstitutionalized population.

Two Measures of the Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population

Millions of people

From 1980 to 2020, the Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection incorporates historical revisions to population data that are not reflected in the BLS Through 2024 Plus CBO Projection.

After 2020, the Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection reflects CBO’s estimates and projections of overall population growth, including a sharp increase in net immigration that began in 2021.

BLS Through 2024 Plus CBO Projection

To estimate the size of the labor force, CBO uses estimates of the civilian noninstitutionalized population published by BLS through 2024. CBO projects that the resulting series will move toward the Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection of the civilian noninstitutionalized population after 2024 and will equal that projection (by age and sex) in 2033 and thereafter.

In the BLS Through 2024 Plus CBO Projection, the civilian noninstitutionalized population increases from 271 million people in 2025 to 303 million in 2055—an average growth rate of 0.4 percent a year. The number of people in that population age 65 or older grows at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent, and the number of people ages 25 to 54 grows at a slower pace, an average of 0.2 percent a year. The number of civilian noninstitutionalized people ages 16 to 24 declines, on average, over the 2025–2055 period.

Uncertainty in CBO’s projections of the civilian noninstitutionalized population stems from uncertainty in the underlying components. If rates of fertility, mortality, and net immigration diverged from the rates in CBO’s projections, the size and age structure of the civilian noninstitutionalized population would differ as well.

BLS Through 2024 Plus CBO Projection of the Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population, by Age Group

Millions of people

The number of people ages 25 to 54 in the civilian noninstitutionalized population—the group most likely to participate in the labor force—is projected to grow more slowly over the next 30 years than it did from 1975 to 2024.

The number of people age 65 or older in that population—who are generally eligible for Social Security and Medicare and are less likely to be employed than younger people—is projected to average 74 million over the next 30 years, about twice the average number of people in that group from 1975 to 2024.

Changes to CBO’s Population Projections Since Last Year

Because of recent revisions to historical data that incorporate information from the 2020 census, CBO is now projecting a larger total population through 2033 than it did last year.6 For subsequent years, however, CBO now expects the population to be smaller and to grow more slowly than it projected last year. That slower growth stems mostly from lower projected fertility rates and from lower projected net immigration (including the effects of a June 2024 executive order that temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border).

As a result of those changes, the population in 2054 (the final year covered by last year’s projections) is now projected to have 10.8 million fewer people than CBO projected last year—a decrease of 2.8 percent. That decline is entirely attributable to a reduction in the projected population age 24 or younger, which largely results from lower projected fertility rates. The projected populations of older age groups, by contrast, are larger through 2054 than CBO projected last year—despite lower projections of fertility rates and net immigration in most years from 2024 to 2054—mainly because of upward revisions to historical data that incorporate information from the 2020 census.

Population Size, by Age Group, in CBO’s 2024 and 2025 Projections

Millions of people

CBO now projects a smaller population age 24 or younger over the next three decades than it projected last year. That change largely reflects reductions in CBO’s projections of the total fertility rate.

Changes to Projected Fertility Rates

CBO now projects separate fertility rates for women in the United States who were born in this country and those who were born elsewhere. In CBO’s projections, the total fertility rate is the average of the rates for native-born and foreign-born women, weighted by the projected size of the populations of native- and foreign-born women of childbearing age (which CBO defines as ages 14 to 49).

In CBO’s current projections, the total fertility rate declines through 2035 to 1.60 births per woman. That long-run rate is lower than the 1.70 births per woman that CBO projected last year and closer to the rate seen in 2023 (the most recent year for which data are available). Because of that change, CBO is projecting fewer births from 2025 to 2054 than it did last year.

A smaller number of births from 2025 to 2054 reduces the projected size of the population, particularly among younger age groups. In particular, the population age 24 or younger in 2054 is now projected to be smaller by 12.5 million people (or 12 percent) than CBO projected last year.

Fertility Rates, by Age Group, in CBO’s 2024 and 2025 Projections

Births per woman

Since last year, CBO has reduced its projection of the total fertility rate in coming decades. But as in last year’s projections, CBO expects higher fertility rates for older women of childbearing age than for younger women over the next 30 years.

Changes to Projected Mortality Rates

CBO’s projection of the rates of mortality improvement (the percentage changes in mortality rates by age and sex) is unchanged from last year. However, the average number of deaths per year from 2025 to 2054 is now projected to be larger by 80,000 (or 2.0 percent) than CBO projected last year. That increase stems mainly from a larger projected population age 65 or older.

Projected life expectancies at birth and at age 65 are largely unchanged from last year. For the 2025–2034 period, they average 79.4 years and 20.0 years, respectively, in the current projections and 79.4 years and 20.1 years in the previous projections. For the 2045–2054 period, life expectancies at birth and at age 65 average 81.7 years and 21.4 years, respectively, in CBO’s current projections and 81.7 years and 21.5 years in last year’s projections.

Mortality Rate, Adjusted for Age and Sex, in CBO’s 2024 and 2025 Projections

Deaths per 100,000 people

CBO has not changed the projected rates of improvement in mortality rates since last year. However, the agency now uses 2020 rather than 2010 as its reference year in calculating the adjusted mortality rate (the rate that would be seen if the projected mortality rates by age and sex occurred in a population that had the same age and sex composition as the population in a reference year). Revisions to estimates of the 2020 population have resulted in small changes to the adjusted mortality rate.

Changes to Projected Net Immigration

CBO now estimates that net immigration in 2021 and 2022 was larger, by 300,000 people and 150,000 people per year, respectively, than the agency estimated last year. Net immigration in 2023 is roughly unchanged from CBO’s estimate last year. From 2024 to 2028, net immigration is now projected to be smaller, by an average of 300,000 people a year, than in CBO’s previous projections.

Those differences mainly result from revisions to CBO’s estimates and projections of net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category. Such immigration was larger in 2021 and 2022 than previously estimated (but about the same in 2023 as last year’s estimate) because CBO changed the method it uses to estimate net immigration of other foreign nationals. Last year, CBO used two sources of information to calculate past net immigration for that category: the Current Population Survey conducted by the Census Bureau and data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). For this year’s projections, CBO used only data from DHS.7

In 2024, estimated inflows of people in the other-foreign-national category were smaller than CBO had anticipated because of an executive order in June 2024 that temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border and because of a one-month pause in August 2024 in the Processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans parole program. The smaller inflows of people in the other-foreign-national category cause total estimated net immigration in 2024 to be lower than CBO projected last year by 600,000 people (or 18 percent).

Net immigration of other foreign nationals is projected to keep declining for the next few years. In CBO’s current projections, such immigration drops to 150,000 people in 2028 and remains at that annual level through 2055. Last year, by comparison, CBO projected that the net flow of other foreign nationals would stabilize at a level consistent with past immigration in that category—200,000 people per year—starting in 2027. CBO’s current, lower figure results from a new estimating method, which involves producing separate projections of inflows and outflows of people in the other-foreign-national category. CBO projects that the inflow of people in that category will decline to the historical average of 900,000 per year. Accounting for emigration and changes in legal status among other foreign nationals, that inflow implies net immigration of 150,000 people per year in that category.

Net Immigration in CBO’s 2024 and 2025 Projections

Millions of people

In CBO’s estimation, net immigration in 2021 and 2022 was larger than the agency estimated last year. Net immigration after 2023 is now generally projected to be smaller than CBO projected last year.

Changes to the Projected Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population

The BLS Through 2024 Plus CBO Projection of the civilian noninstitutionalized population—the measure CBO used this year and last year to estimate the size of the labor force—is now projected to be smaller in 2054 by 7.0 million people (or 2.3 percent) than the agency projected last year.

Largely because of its lower projections of fertility rates, CBO has reduced its projection of the size of the civilian noninstitutionalized population ages 16 to 24 in 2054 by 4.8 million people (or 12 percent). The size of the population in other age groups in 2054 also differs from last year’s projections, mainly because CBO projects that the BLS Through 2024 Plus CBO Projection of the civilian noninstitutionalized population will equal the Census Through 2020 Plus CBO Projection for each age and sex group by 2033. The populations ages 25 to 54 and age 65 or older are now projected to be smaller in 2054 than CBO projected last year (by 700,000 people and 1.8 million people, respectively), whereas the population ages 55 to 64 is now projected to be larger in 2054 than CBO projected last year (by 200,000 people).

BLS Through 2024 Plus CBO Projection of the Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population, by Age Group, in CBO’s 2024 and 2025 Projections

Millions of people

The largest change to the civilian noninstitutionalized population in this year’s projections involves the number of people ages 16 to 24. That age group is projected to be smaller than in last year’s projections because of a reduction in projected fertility rates.


  1. 1 The Social Security area population includes all residents of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, as well as civilian residents of U.S. territories. It also includes federal civilian employees and members of the U.S. armed forces living abroad and their dependents, U.S. citizens living abroad, and noncitizens living abroad who are eligible for Social Security benefits on the basis of their earnings while in the United States.

  2. 2 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024, online edition (July 2024), https://population.un.org/wpp; and Census Bureau, “2023 American Community Survey 1-Year Public Use Microdata Samples” (September 19, 2024), https://tinyurl.com/9d35hsw2.

  3. 3 Steven H. Woolf and Heidi Schoomaker, “Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates in the United States, 1959–2017,” Journal of the American Medical Association, vol. 322, no. 20 (November 26, 2019), pp. 1996–2016, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2019.16932.

  4. 4 CBO used the Das Gupta method to smooth over discontinuities that occurred in the Census Bureau’s population estimates for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. For more information about that method, see Census Bureau, Methodology for the Intercensal Population and Housing Unit Estimates: 2000 to 2010 (October 2012), https://tinyurl.com/dhsk9erk.

  5. 5 This analysis was completed before the Census Bureau published its most recent population estimates for 2020 to 2024, which have been revised and are closer to CBO’s projections than the bureau’s previous estimates. See Mark Gross and others, “Census Bureau Improves Methodology to Better Estimate Increase in Net International Migration,” Random Samplings (blog entry, December 19, 2024), https://tinyurl.com/34tm4cy2.

  6. 6 CBO uses historical estimates of the Social Security area population from the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary. The office’s latest report, The 2024 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, released in May 2024, was the first to incorporate information from the 2020 census in its population estimates.

  7. 7 CBO no longer uses data from the Current Population Survey to estimate net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category in part because Census Bureau researchers have found that the Master Address File, which is used to determine the population from which that survey’s sample is taken, does not fully capture noncitizens residing in the United States. For more information, see J. David Brown and others, Real-Time 2020 Administrative Record Census Simulation: A New Design for the 21st Century (Census Bureau, May 5, 2023), https://tinyurl.com/yskk72b3.

Appendix A: Comparing CBO’s Population Projections With Those of Other Agencies

This appendix compares the Congressional Budget Office’s latest population projections with those of two other federal agencies that project trends in the U.S. population: the Social Security Administration (SSA) and the Census Bureau. SSA produces population projections each year that underlie its projections of the finances of the Social Security trust funds.1 SSA’s population projections include what the agency calls an intermediate alternative, which represents the Social Security trustees’ best estimates of future outcomes. SSA also produces projections that reflect different assumptions about future rates of fertility, mortality, and net immigration. (For ease of presentation, this comparison includes only the intermediate alternative.)

The Census Bureau produces national population projections several times per decade. The most recent projections, published in 2023, include a central projection of the resident population of the United States—known as the main series—as well as projections under scenarios in which net immigration in 2023 is about 50 percent greater or less than in the main series.2 More recently, the Census Bureau released new population estimates for 2022 to 2024, which include upward revisions to estimates of net immigration and the resident population in those years.3 However, the Census Bureau has not yet produced new population projections based on those estimates, so this comparison uses the Census Bureau’s 2023 projections, which are based on earlier population estimates.

The Census Bureau’s projections are of the resident population of the United States, which includes all residents of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. By contrast, CBO’s and SSA’s population projections are of the Social Security area population, which is used for estimating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits and includes the resident population as well as U.S. citizens and others living abroad who are eligible for those benefits. CBO’s current population projections are larger than the Census Bureau’s 2023 main series for all years of the 2025–2055 period. CBO’s projections are also larger than the Census Bureau’s high-immigration projection and SSA’s intermediate alternative projection in the near term but are smaller than those two projections by the late 2030s (see Figure A-1).

Figure A-1.

CBO’s and Other Agencies’ Projections of the Size of the Population

Millions of people

Mainly because of higher estimates of recent net immigration, CBO is projecting larger populations in the near term than is SSA or the Census Bureau. In later years, CBO’s population projection is smaller than SSA’s projection and the Census Bureau’s projection under its high-immigration scenario.

Notes

Data source: Congressional Budget Office. See www.cbo.gov/publication/60875#data.

SSA = Social Security Administration (Office of the Chief Actuary).

CBO’s and SSA’s projections represent the Social Security area population. The Census Bureau’s projection represents the resident population.

Fertility Rates

CBO’s projection of the total fertility rate is similar to the Census Bureau’s projection and lower than SSA’s projection. In CBO’s projections, the total fertility rate equals 1.62 births per woman in 2025, 1.60 in 2035, and 1.60 in 2055. By comparison, the Census Bureau projects that the total fertility rate will gradually decrease from 1.63 in 2025 to 1.62 by 2033 and to 1.60 by 2050, whereas SSA projects that the total fertility rate will rise from 1.70 in 2025 to 1.90 by 2036 (see Figure A-2).

Figure A-2.

CBO’s and Other Agencies’ Projections of Fertility Rates, by Age Group

Births per woman

For women under 30, CBO projects lower fertility rates than either the Census Bureau or SSA does. For women 30 or older, CBO’s projection of fertility rates is higher than the Census Bureau’s but lower than SSA’s

Notes

Data source: Congressional Budget Office. See www.cbo.gov/publication/60875#data.

SSA = Social Security Administration (Office of the Chief Actuary).

The total fertility rate represents the average number of children that a woman would have if, in each year of her life, she experienced the birth rates observed or assumed for that year and if she survived her entire childbearing period. (CBO and SSA estimate that period as ages 14 to 49, and the Census Bureau estimates it as ages 14 to 54.)

CBO’s and the Census Bureau’s projections of fertility rates by age group are less similar than their projections of the total fertility rate. Both agencies project that fertility rates for women under 30 will fall between 2025 and 2055, but CBO projects a decline from 0.79 births per woman in 2025 to 0.62 in 2055, a larger decrease than in the Census Bureau’s projection (from 0.83 births per woman in 2025 to 0.79 in 2055). For women 30 or older, CBO projects that the fertility rate will rise from 0.84 births per woman in 2025 to 0.98 in 2055, a larger increase than the Census Bureau’s projected change (from 0.80 births per woman in 2025 to 0.82 in 2055).

SSA’s projection of the total fertility rate is much higher than CBO’s because of differences in projected trends in childbearing by age. Unlike CBO, SSA does not expect the fertility rate for women under 30 to decline. Both agencies project that the fertility rate for women 30 or older will rise—reflecting delayed childbearing by women who had fewer or no children at younger ages—but CBO projects a smaller increase for that age group than SSA does.

Mortality Rates

CBO projects mortality rates on the basis of historical trends, with adjustments for the estimated effects of COVID-19 through 2025. Because CBO projects that mortality rates will decline through 2055, its projection of life expectancy at birth increases, from 78.9 years in 2025 to 82.3 years in 2055 (see Figure A-3).4 Those projections are slightly lower than SSA’s projection of life expectancy at birth in 2025 (79.2 years) and slightly higher than SSA’s projection in 2055 (82.0 years). Both CBO’s and SSA’s projections of life expectancy at birth are lower than those of the Census Bureau (80.1 years in 2025 and 83.7 years in 2055).

Figure A-3.

CBO’s and Other Agencies’ Projections of Life Expectancy at Birth

Years

CBO’s projections of the average life expectancy of someone born in 2025 or 2055 are similar to SSA’s projections but lower than the Census Bureau’s projections.

Notes

Data source: Congressional Budget Office. See www.cbo.gov/publication/60875#data.

SSA = Social Security Administration (Office of the Chief Actuary).

Net Immigration

CBO’s projections of net immigration are based on information from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). According to data from the department, the number of people in the other-foreign-national category entering the United States increased significantly in the past four years.5 That increase has a major effect on CBO’s projections of net immigration. (For more details about that category of immigration, see Appendix B.)

CBO projects greater net immigration in the near term than SSA does (see Figure A-4), largely because of recent DHS data about immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category. CBO’s estimates or projections of overall net immigration are higher than SSA’s by 1.6 million people in 2023, by 900,000 people in 2024, and by 490,000 people in 2025.6 Starting in 2027, however, CBO’s projection of net immigration is smaller than SSA’s by an average of about 190,000 people per year. Many of CBO’s projections are based on past long-term averages. CBO projects that net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category will decline over the 2024–2028 period to a level more consistent with historical experience.

Figure A-4.

CBO’s and Other Agencies’ Projections of Net Immigration

Millions of people

For the near term, CBO’s projection of net immigration is higher than those of SSA and the Census Bureau. For later years, CBO’s projection of net immigration is lower than SSA’s but higher than the Census Bureau’s central projection (its main series).

Notes

Data source: Congressional Budget Office. See www.cbo.gov/publication/60875#data.

SSA = Social Security Administration (Office of the Chief Actuary).

CBO’s projections of net immigration are higher than the Census Bureau’s main series and its projections under its low-immigration scenario. In addition, CBO’s estimates or projections exceed the Census Bureau’s projections under its high-immigration scenario by 1.7 million people in 2023, by 1.1 million people in 2024, and by 420,000 people in 2025. Thereafter, CBO’s projections are lower than the Census Bureau’s projections under its high-immigration scenario.


  1. 1. For more information about those projections, see Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, The 2024 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds (May 2024), www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2024.

  2. 2. For more information about those projections, see Census Bureau, Methodology, Assumptions, and Inputs for the 2023 National Population Projections (November 2023), https://tinyurl.com/5n7wemnz.

  3. 3. For more information about those estimates, see Census Bureau, Methodology for the United States Population Estimates: Vintage 2024: Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico—April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2024 (December 2024), https://tinyurl.com/5erua2ty.

  4. 4. CBO’s projections of mortality rates reflect historical data through 2022, the latest year for which data were available when the projections were made. CBO’s projection of life expectancy at birth in 2022 (77.48 years) is consistent with the estimate for that year by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (77.50 years). For more details, see Kenneth D. Kochanek and others, Mortality in the United States, 2022, Data Brief 492 (National Center for Health Statistics, March 2024), www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db492.htm.

  5. 5. Customs and Border Protection, “U.S. Border Patrol—Dispositions and Transfers: USBP Monthly Southwest Border Encounters by Processing Disposition” (December 19, 2024), www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/custody-and-transfer-statistics.

  6. 6. SSA expected that some immigration planned for 2020 or 2021 would be delayed to 2023 or 2024 because of disruptions resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. For more details, see Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, The Long-Range Demographic Assumptions for the 2024 Trustees Report (May 2024), Section 3, p. 3, https://tinyurl.com/373wa6zf.

Appendix B: Net Immigration of People in the Other-Foreign-National Category

In developing its 2025 population projections, the Congressional Budget Office revised its projection of net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national (OFN) category. Those projections reflect laws and policies that were in place as of November 15, 2024, including the effects of a June 2024 executive order that temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border.1

The OFN category includes three main groups of people:

  • Those who entered the United States illegally and have not obtained a permanent legal status,
  • Those who were permitted to enter the country lawfully through the use of parole authority and who may be awaiting proceedings in immigration court,2 and
  • Those who previously resided in the United States legally in a temporary status but who remained in the country after that legal status expired.

In this report, net immigration of people in the OFN category in a given year consists of people who join that category upon their arrival from foreign countries, plus people already living in the United States who move into that category when their temporary legal status expires, minus people who leave the OFN category by emigrating or by obtaining a legal immigration status.

CBO estimates that net immigration in the OFN category amounted to 2.4 million people in 2023, up from 850,000 in 2021 and 2.0 million in 2022. In 2024, CBO estimates, net OFN immigration amounted to 1.8 million people. Thereafter, in CBO’s projections, the inflow of other foreign nationals returns to historical levels, and net immigration in that category declines to 150,000 people per year by 2028. Net OFN immigration is projected to remain at that annual level through 2045 and then grow at the same rate as the overall population through 2055.

CBO’s estimates of net immigration of people in the OFN category are based on publicly available data and information from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Those data show that in recent years, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials—officers in the Border Patrol working between ports of entry and officers in the Office of Field Operations working at ports of entry—encountered more people attempting to enter the United States than they had earlier, including in the years before the coronavirus pandemic. More of those people were released into the United States than had been previously, generally through the use of parole authority or with a notice to appear before an immigration judge.3 Estimates of net immigration in recent years based on DHS data have been found to be consistent with immigrants’ applications for employment authorization.4

Projections of net immigration of people in the OFN category are especially uncertain, for many reasons. For example, information about other foreign nationals who leave the United States is scarce. CBO will continue to evaluate new data as they become available.

CBO’s Estimates for 2024

CBO estimates that in 2024, 2.7 million people, on net, immigrated to the United States, of whom 1.8 million were in the other-foreign-national category. Those numbers are smaller than estimated net immigration in the previous two years, though larger than estimated net immigration in 2021. CBO estimates that overall net immigration to the United States numbered 1.5 million people in 2021, 2.8 million in 2022, and 3.3 million in 2023. Net immigration in the OFN category numbered 850,000 people in 2021, 2.0 million in 2022, and 2.4 million in 2023, CBO estimates. Net immigration in that category was lower in 2024 than in 2023, in CBO’s estimation, largely because of the June executive order that temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border.

To calculate net immigration of other foreign nationals in 2024, CBO first estimated the total number of such immigrants who entered the United States or who overstayed their temporary status in that year—2.6 million. CBO then subtracted the estimated number of other foreign nationals who emigrated or who obtained a permanent legal immigration status in 2024—820,000. (Calculations for previous years followed a similar process. When applicable, CBO first converted fiscal year totals to calendar year totals.)

Estimates of People Entering the Other-Foreign-National Category

CBO’s estimate that 2.6 million people entered the OFN category in 2024 is the sum of its estimates for four groups of other foreign nationals: people who entered the United States between official points of entry and were released into the country by CBP officials (570,000), people who entered at official points of entry and were released into the country by CBP officials (960,000), people who entered without encountering a CBP official (800,000), and people who entered legally in a temporary status but overstayed their term of residency (285,000).

People Arriving Between Official Ports of Entry. In 2024, a total of 570,000 immigrants were released into the United States after encountering a CBP official between official ports of entry, CBO estimates. Nearly all of those people were encountered and released at the southern border.

In CBO’s estimation, 560,000 of the people who arrived at the southern border in 2024 between official ports of entry either were released into the country by the Border Patrol with a notice to appear or with parole or were detained with a warrant of arrest. Those detained included unaccompanied children, who were temporarily placed in the custody of the Office of Refugee Resettlement, as well as people who were given a notice to appear and transferred to the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, from which they were released in many cases.5

The executive order that the President signed in June temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border (with the exception of certain noncitizens, such as unaccompanied children, victims of human trafficking, and members of the U.S. armed forces). The suspension was set to remain in effect while the number of encounters at the southern border exceeded a given threshold. CBO estimates that in the first five months of 2024 (before the order was issued), an average of about 80,000 people per month were released by the Border Patrol after being encountered at the southern border. That number fell to an average of about 20,000 people per month from June through December, CBO estimates.

In CBO’s assessment, if the monthly average from the first five months of 2024 had continued through the end of the year, the number of releases into the United States between official ports of entry in 2024 would have totaled 970,000 people. That number is 400,000 (or 70 percent) larger than the 570,000 people that CBO estimates were released after arriving between official ports of entry in 2024. If the inflow of people in the OFN category was 400,000 greater than CBO estimates, net immigration of other foreign nationals would amount to 2.2 million people in 2024—22 percent larger than the 1.8 million people that CBO estimates for that year.

Many fewer immigrants (10,000) were released in 2024 after encountering a CBP official between official ports of entry at the northern border or near the coasts of the United States, in CBO’s assessment. CBO estimated that number using information about the total number of Border Patrol encounters nationwide, the number of encounters at the southern border, and the rate at which people encountered at the southern border were released into the country.6

People Arriving at Official Ports of Entry. CBO estimates that CBP’s Office of Field Operations (OFO) released about 960,000 immigrants who arrived at official ports of entry in 2024. According to the data from CBP on which that estimate is based, 720,000 people were released at official ports between January and September 2024 with parole, a notice to appear in immigration court, or both.7 The count of people released with parole includes the effects of a one-month pause that occurred in August 2024 in the Processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans parole program. For the rest of 2024, CBO estimated that an additional 240,000 people would be released by OFO with a notice to appear, parole, or both.

People Not Encountering a CBP Official. CBO estimates that about 800,000 immigrants in the other-foreign-national category crossed a U.S. border in 2024 without encountering a CBP official. That total comprises two groups of people:

  • Those who were directly or indirectly observed making an unlawful entry, who were not turned back or apprehended, and who are no longer being pursued by the Border Patrol (sometimes referred to as “got aways”);8 and
  • Those who crossed a U.S. border without being seen or detected.

DHS publishes estimated counts of people in the first group, but its official estimates for 2023 and 2024 were not available as of November 15, 2024 (when CBO completed its projections).9 Instead, CBO used media reports in which Border Patrol officials indicated that the number of such people was 670,000 in fiscal year 2023.10

The Chief of the Border Patrol testified to the Congress that the number of estimated “got aways” probably undercounts the number of immigrants who do not encounter a CBP official by 10 percent to 20 percent.11 To account for people in 2024 who crossed the border undetected by CBP officials (the second group), CBO adjusted the Border Patrol’s estimate of 670,000 people upward by 15 percent, to 770,000 people in fiscal year 2023. Converting that number from fiscal to calendar years produced a total estimate of 800,000 people entering the United States in 2024 without encountering a CBP official.

People Overstaying Their Temporary Status. CBO estimates that 285,000 people who previously resided in the United States legally in a temporary status remained after that legal status expired in 2024. CBO developed that estimate using data from DHS, which indicated that 510,000 people may have overstayed their temporary status in fiscal year 2023.12 In CBO’s estimation, the number of people who overstayed in 2024 was the same as in 2023.

CBO adjusted the DHS estimate downward because of its assessment, based on information from earlier years, that a sizable fraction of people who overstayed their temporary status did so for only a short time. DHS reported that 46 percent of people who were estimated to have overstayed their visa at the end of fiscal year 2016 and remained in the country were no longer in that category by May 2018 because they had either left the United States or obtained a permanent legal status in the intervening period.13 In other words, DHS estimated that only 54 percent of people who had overstayed their visa at the end of 2016 were still overstaying their visa 20 months later. On the basis of that information, as well as similar declines seen in the number of people who may have initially overstayed in 2015 or in 2017 through 2020 and remained in later periods, CBO estimates that about 285,000 people who had entered legally in previous years but overstayed their temporary status were present in the United States in 2023 and that same number overstayed in 2024.

Estimates of People Leaving the Other-Foreign-National Category

In CBO’s assessment, a total of about 820,000 people in the OFN category either emigrated from the United States or obtained a permanent legal status in 2024. Of those, about 600,000 people were estimated to have emigrated in 2024. CBO developed that estimate using its projected rates of emigration, which vary depending on how long people have resided in the United States: 8 percent for people in the first calendar year after their arrival, 4 percent for people in the second or third year after their arrival, and 2 percent for people who arrived more than 3 years ago. Altogether, those rates imply an average emigration rate of 2.9 percent from 2021 to 2035 (slightly higher than the average emigration rate of 2.8 percent from 2021 to 2035 that CBO used in last year’s population projections).

In addition, CBO estimates that about 225,000 people in the OFN category obtained a permanent legal status in 2024. That group included people who were (or would become) immediate relatives of U.S. citizens, people who were not immediate relatives of U.S. citizens but were eligible for a permanent legal status under a family preference, people who were granted asylum, and people who qualified under the Cuban Adjustment Act, as amended.14

CBO’s Projections for 2025 to 2055

Many of CBO’s long-term projections are based on past long-term averages. CBO projects that inflows of people in the OFN category will decline by 25 percent each year from 2024 to 2028 to reach 900,000 people per year—an amount that is closer to historical experience—and will remain at that annual level through 2045. Subtracting CBO’s estimates of people who emigrate or acquire a legal status yields projected net immigration in the OFN category of 150,000 people a year from 2028 to 2045. In the last decade of CBO’s 30-year projection period (2046 to 2055), net immigration of other foreign nationals is projected to grow at the same rate as the total population.


  1. 1. Securing the Border, 89 Fed. Reg. 48487 (June 7, 2024), https://tinyurl.com/mpa728ww; and Amending Proclamation 10773, 89 Fed. Reg. 80351 (September 27, 2024), https://tinyurl.com/77he9km8.

  2. 2. Parole authority permits people to enter the United States temporarily on a case-by-case basis for urgent humanitarian reasons or for significant public benefit.

  3. 3. CBO uses information on the number of people released by CBP officials rather than on the number of people encountered by CBP officials to minimize the risk of double-counting people who might have multiple encounters in a year.

  4. 4. Christopher L. Foote, Quantifying the Recent Immigration Surge: Evidence From Work-Permit Applications, Working Paper 24-15 (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, December 2024), https://doi.org/10.29412/res.wp.2024.15.

  5. 5. Customs and Border Protection, “U.S. Border Patrol—Dispositions and Transfers: USBP Monthly Southwest Border Encounters by Processing Disposition” (December 19, 2024), www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/custody-and-transfer-statistics.

  6. 6. Specifically, CBO multiplied the number of nationwide encounters minus the number of encounters at the southern border by one-half of the release rate from the southern border (southern border releases divided by southern border encounters). In other words, CBO estimates that the release rate of people encountered between official ports of entry not at the southern border is half the release rate at the southern border.

  7. 7. The estimates in this report of the number of people released by OFO with a notice to appear or parole reflect OFO’s disposition categories “Paroled” and “Notice to Appear” as defined in Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, “TRAC Immigration: Stopping ‘Inadmissibles’ at U.S. Ports of Entry” (accessed December 10, 2024), https://tinyurl.com/bdjzjnzb. Some people are released by OFO with both a notice to appear and parole.

  8. 8. For the definition of “got away,” see 6 U.S.C. § 223(a)(3), http://tinyurl.com/5n7uv2um.

  9. 9. For the fiscal year 2022 estimates, see Department of Homeland Security, Department of Homeland Security Border Security Metrics Report: 2022 (July 3, 2023), https://tinyurl.com/4uyrsubw.

  10. 10. Adam Shaw and Bill Melugin, “New Data Reveals Illegal Immigrants Eluding Border Patrol Spiked Under Biden, Surpassing Predecessors,” Fox News (May 15, 2024), https://tinyurl.com/5n964et2.

  11. 11. Testimony of Raul L. Ortiz, Chief, Border Patrol, before the House Committee on Homeland Security, Failure by Design: Examining Secretary Mayorkas’ Border Crisis (March 15, 2023), time stamp 1:08:15, http://tinyurl.com/3tbv2w65.

  12. 12. Those people are known in the data as “suspected in-country overstays.” See Customs and Border Protection, Entry/Exit Overstay Report: Fiscal Year 2023 Report to Congress (August 2024), Table 1, pp. 10–11, https://tinyurl.com/2s4nkyvz.

  13. 13. Department of Homeland Security, Fiscal Year 2017 Entry/Exit Overstay Report (October 2018), Table 9, p. 31, http://tinyurl.com/ymd2hz9r.

  14. 14. Cuban Adjustment Act, P.L. 89-732, 80 Stat. 1161 (1966) (codified as amended at 8 U.S.C. § 1255 note), http://tinyurl.com/2uzfpth.

Appendix C: Terms Used in This Report

In this report, population refers to the Social Security area population, which includes all residents of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, as well as civilian residents of U.S. territories. It also includes federal civilian employees and members of the U.S. armed forces living abroad and their dependents, U.S. citizens living abroad, and noncitizens living abroad who are eligible for Social Security benefits on the basis of their earnings while in the United States.

The Congressional Budget Office projects the Social Security area population on January 1 of a given year by starting with the population on January 1 of the previous year, adding the projected number of people who are born into that population or who immigrate (and thus become part of that population), and subtracting the projected number who die or who emigrate (and thus are no longer part of that population) during that year.

CBO divides the Social Security area population into four main categories:

  • U.S. nationals comprise U.S. citizens as well as people who were born or whose parents were born in American Samoa or on Swains Island on or after the date the United States acquired them (the latter are U.S. nationals but not U.S. citizens by birth).
  • LPR+ consists of lawful permanent residents (LPRs) plus people who are eligible to apply to become LPRs on the basis of their current immigration status. LPRs include people who were granted that status while in the United States as well as people who gained admission from abroad. People can become eligible for LPR status in various ways: by becoming an immediate relative of a U.S. citizen; by receiving an immigrant visa through one of the family-based or employment-based preference categories or by receiving a diversity visa (which applies to countries with low rates of immigration into the United States); or by meeting other requirements. People who are eligible or will soon become eligible to apply for LPR status include certain immediate relatives of U.S. citizens (such as fiancés or fiancées) and people granted refugee status, asylum, or another status (in the case, for example, of victims of human trafficking and certain parolees) that may allow them to adjust their status to that of a lawful permanent resident.1
  • INA nonimmigrants comprise temporary workers, student exchange visitors, qualifying family members, officials of foreign governments, and other people admitted as nonimmigrants under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), while they remain in that status.2
  • Other foreign nationals consist of people in the United States who are not part of the U.S. national, LPR+, or INA nonimmigrant categories. Other foreign nationals include people in the following groups who did not later become U.S. citizens or receive LPR, asylee, or nonimmigrant status: people who entered the United States illegally; people who entered legally in a temporary status and remained after that legal status expired; and people who were permitted to enter despite not being admissible as an LPR, asylee, refugee, or nonimmigrant. The latter typically occurs through the use of parole authority—which permits people to enter the United States temporarily on a case-by-case basis for urgent humanitarian reasons or for significant public benefit—and includes people who may be awaiting proceedings in immigration court.
  • Under several laws (such as the one that authorizes Temporary Protected Status) or policies (such as deferred action), the government might choose not to seek the removal of people in the other-foreign-national category for a specified or indefinite period. People in that category might be eligible to apply for employment authorization through various channels (such as by receiving Temporary Protected Status or having applied for asylum). People paroled into the United States are considered to have entered lawfully and to be in the country lawfully during their period of parole.

Among other terms used in this report, the civilian noninstitutionalized population consists of people age 16 or older who are not members of the armed forces on active duty and who are not in penal or mental institutions or in homes for the elderly or infirm.

The total fertility rate represents the average number of children that a woman would have if, in each year of her life, she experienced the birth rates observed or assumed for that year and if she survived her entire childbearing period. (CBO and SSA estimate that period as ages 14 to 49, and the Census Bureau estimates it as ages 14 to 54.)

Life expectancy in a given year is the amount of time a person would expect to survive on the basis of that year’s mortality rates for people of various ages. It is sometimes referred to as period life expectancy.

The mortality rate adjusted for age and sex represents the rate that would be observed if the projected mortality rates by age and sex occurred in a population that had the same age and sex composition as the population in a reference year. For its reference population, CBO uses the population in 2020.


  1. 1. For more details about eligibility for LPR status, see Office of Homeland Security Statistics, “Immigrant Classes of Admission” (accessed December 6, 2024), https://tinyurl.com/dy2jn95c.

  2. 2. For more information about the INA nonimmigrant category, see sec. 101(a)(15) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(15) (2024); and Office of Homeland Security Statistics, “Nonimmigrant Classes of Admission” (accessed December 6, 2024), https://tinyurl.com/ms3yh9kv.

About This Document

This volume is one of a series of reports on the state of the budget and the economy that the Congressional Budget Office issues each year. In keeping with CBO’s mandate to provide objective, impartial analysis, the report makes no recommendations.

Daniel Crown and Katherine Starkey prepared the report with guidance from Molly Dahl and Julie Topoleski. Jeremy Crimm, Rebecca Heller, and Delaney Smith contributed to the analysis. Tamara Hayford, Kyoung Mook Lim, and Emily Stern provided comments. Noah Swart fact-checked the report.

Mark Doms, Jeffrey Kling, and Kyoung Mook Lim reviewed the report. Christian Howlett edited it, R. L. Rebach created the graphics, and Casey Labrack prepared the text for publication. The report is available at www.cbo.gov/publication/60875.

CBO seeks feedback to make its work as useful as possible. Please send comments to communications@cbo.gov.

Phillip L. Swagel

Director

January 2025