This document describes how CBO projects tariff revenues. Those projections are included in CBO’s baseline (the agency’s projections of federal spending, revenues, and debt in the current year and next decade, which incorporate the assumption that current laws generally remain in place). The presentation also explains how and when CBO produces estimates of the revenue effects of changes in tariff rates.
This document includes three sections:
What are tariffs, and how much revenue are they projected to generate under current law? (Slides 3–5)
Who has the authority to change tariff rates, and how has that authority been exercised in recent years? (Slides 6–12)
How, and when, does CBO produce estimates of changes in tariff rates? (Slides 13–19)
