All years referred to in this report are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end. Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding.
This report by the Congressional Budget Office summarizes the agency’s estimates of the effects on mandatory spending or revenues of authorizing legislation passed by both Houses of Congress during the second session of the 117th Congress (which spanned the period from January 3, 2022, to January 3, 2023).1 As estimated by CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), the effects of those laws on mandatory spending and revenues will add about $810 billion to the cumulative deficit over the 2022–2032 period—the net result of a $900 billion increase in outlays and a $90 billion increase in revenues (see Table 1).
Total Estimated Effects on Mandatory Spending and Revenues of Laws Enacted in the Second Session of the 117th Congress
Billions of Dollars
One law in particular—the Sergeant First Class Heath Robinson Honoring our Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics (PACT) Act of 2022 (Public Law 117-168)—accounts for an increase in deficits of $797 billion over the 2022–2032 period, stemming primarily from an increase in mandatory outlays.2 That law established the Cost of War Toxic Exposures Fund to support health care, medical research, and other activities for veterans exposed to toxic substances or other environmental hazards and expanded other benefits for veterans. Before that law was enacted, those costs were generally classified as discretionary spending. The act specifies that those expenses are to be categorized as mandatory spending.
Two laws with the next-largest budgetary effects—the 2022 CHIPS and science act (P.L. 117-167) and the 2022 reconciliation act (P.L. 117-169)—are estimated to increase deficits by $79 billion and decrease deficits by $58 billion, respectively, over the 2022–2032 period.3 The first act provided funding to support the domestic production of semiconductors, among other things, and the second put in place a new alternative minimum tax on corporations, provided additional funding for the Internal Revenue Service, required Medicare to negotiate the prices of certain prescription drugs, enhanced the health insurance subsidies established by the Affordable Care Act, and established subsidies for renewable energy.
CBO prepared each estimate when the legislation was last considered by the Congress, measuring costs and revenues against the baseline projections used for budget enforcement by the House and Senate Committees on the Budget.4 Those estimates do not include subsequent changes that were made as part of CBO’s updates to its baseline projections. JCT provided estimates of the budgetary effects of changes to tax law. For consistency, each estimate covers the same period as the one CBO used for the corresponding cost estimate during the session.
Two supplemental tables that provide details about the estimated budgetary effects of each law are posted along with this report (see www.cbo.gov/publication/58956).
- Supplemental Table 1 lists the laws enacted during the second session of the 117th Congress by date of enactment and provides their estimated effects over the 2022–2032 period. Each entry includes the number of the underlying bill and, when possible, a link to the relevant cost estimate on CBO’s website. The amounts in a referenced cost estimate may differ from the amounts shown in the table because the enacted version of the bill may differ from the version CBO initially analyzed.
- Supplemental Table 2 lists the 42 laws enacted during the second session of the 117th Congress that CBO estimated would have insignificant budgetary effects—specifically, laws that would individually increase or decrease annual and cumulative deficits by less than $500,000 over the 2022–2032 period. Those laws are also listed by date of enactment; however, because their effects are relatively small, the table does not provide links to the relevant cost estimates. Laws that were estimated to have no budgetary effects are not listed.
1. Mandatory spending is generally governed by statutory criteria and is not normally controlled by the annual appropriation process. The amounts in this report and its two supplemental tables also reflect the estimated effects on revenues of provisions included in enacted appropriation legislation. The report and supplemental tables do not include the estimated effects of appropriation legislation on budget authority or outlays because most of those effects are classified in the budget as discretionary spending. Although annual appropriation legislation typically provides a large amount of mandatory spending authority (estimated at more than $1 trillion in 2022), most of that spending is already included in CBO’s baseline projections as required by section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985. Accordingly, most mandatory spending ascribed to appropriation legislation has no budgetary effects in relation to CBO’s baseline projections.
This report covers laws that were enacted between the start of the second session of the 117th Congress and January 5, 2023. Although all the laws described in this report passed both chambers of Congress before the end of the second session of the 117th Congress (January 3, 2023), several were signed into law by the President shortly after that date.
2. See Congressional Budget Office, estimated budgetary effects of H.R. 3967, Honoring our PACT Act of 2021, as amended by the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs (June 6, 2022), www.cbo.gov/publication/58177.
3. See Congressional Budget Office, cost estimate for H.R. 4346, as amended by the Senate and as posted by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on July 20, 2022 (July 21, 2022), www.cbo.gov/publication/58319, and cost estimate for Public Law 117-169, to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Title II of S. Con. Res. 14, as enacted on August 16, 2022 (September 7, 2022), www.cbo.gov/publication/58455.
4. For more information about the budgetary effects identified in CBO’s cost estimates, see Congressional Budget Office, How CBO Prepares Cost Estimates (February 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53519.
This report was prepared for the House and Senate Committees on the Budget. In keeping with the Congressional Budget Office’s mandate to provide objective, impartial analysis, the report makes no recommendations.
J’nell Blanco Suchy prepared the report with guidance from Megan Carroll and Theresa Gullo and with assistance from George McArdle and Olivia Yang.
Mark Doms, Jeffrey Kling, and Robert Sunshine reviewed the report. Rebecca Lanning edited it, and Casey Labrack prepared the text for publication.
The report and its supplemental tables are available at www.cbo.gov/publication/58956. For previous editions, see https://tinyurl.com/2smywemv.
CBO seeks feedback to make its work as useful as possible. Please send comments to email@example.com.
Phillip L. Swagel