Presentation by Theresa Gullo, Director of Budget Analysis, and John McClelland, Director of Tax Analysis, at a joint seminar by the Congressional Budget Office and the Congressional Research Service.
CBO's baseline budget and economic projections are based on the assumption that current laws governing federal revenues and spending will generally remain unchanged. Some specific rules governing baseline projections have been included in legislation (in particular, the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985) or have been developed by CBO in consultation with the House and Senate Budget Committees.
The baseline projections are not intended to be a prediction of budgetary outcomes. Rather, the projections reflect CBO's best judgment about how the economy and the budget will evolve under existing laws. That approach allows the baseline to serve as a benchmark against which Members of Congress can measure the effects of proposed legislation.
