CBO has completed the estimate of the direct spending and revenue effects of H.R. 6395, the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, as passed by the House of Representatives on July 21, 2020. Enacting the legislation would increase both direct spending and revenues. The net increase in the deficit would total $21 million over the 2021-2030 period.
Two divisions of the act would increase net direct spending by $36 million over the 2021-2030 period. Division H would allow the Coast Guard to spend recovered funds without further appropriation and also would temporarily prohibit the Coast Guard from charging certain fees. Division G would require federal banking regulators to take a number of actions to help the private sector comply with the Bank Secrecy Act; implementing those requirements would increase costs. Other provisions would have insignificant effects on direct spending.
Division G would reduce the maximum allowable size of the Federal Reserve Surplus fund in 2021, which would increase revenues by $15 million over the 2021-2030 period, CBO estimates. Other provisions would have insignificant effects on revenues.
Because the bill would affect direct spending and revenues, statutory pay-as-you-go procedures apply.
CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 6395 would not increase on-budget deficits by more than $5 billion in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2031.
On October 28, 2019, CBO posted a cost estimate for H.R. 2514, the COUNTER Act of 2019, as posted on the website of the House Majority Leader on October 25, 2019. That act is similar to Division G of H.R. 6395. Differences between the cost estimates for the legislation reflect differences in the language and the assumed effective date.
On July 1, 2020, CBO transmitted a cost estimate for S. 4049, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, as reported by the Senate Committee on Armed Services on June 23, 2020. That version of the legislation would increase direct spending by an estimated $488 million over the 2021-2030 period. The legislation differs from H.R. 6395 and CBO’s cost estimate reflects those differences.
On July 16, 2020, CBO transmitted a cost estimate for H.R. 6395, the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, as reported by the House Committee on Armed Services on July 9, 2020. That earlier version of H.R. 6395 would have insignificant effects on direct spending and revenues, CBO estimates, because of differences in the language.
On October 1, 2020, CBO transmitted a cost estimate for S. 4049, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, as passed by the Senate on July 23, 2020. CBO estimates that version of S. 4049 would increase the deficit by about $7.9 billion over the 2021-2030 period. That act differs from H.R. 6395 and the earlier version of S. 4049, and CBO’s cost estimate reflects those differences.
