Today I spoke about CBO’s latest 10-year budget and economic projections at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic Tax Reform and on a panel discussion at IHS Markit’s 2019 Economic Policy Summit.
I talked about many of the same issues that I discussed last week in a presentation at PwC. In CBO’s projections, economic output is expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, supporting strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. After 2019, economic growth averages 1.8 percent per year, which is less than the historical average.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit for 2019 will be $960 billion. Under current law, budget deficits are projected to average $1.2 trillion a year between 2020 and 2029, boosting debt held by the public to 95 percent of gross domestic product in that year—its highest level since just after World War II. Last week, I talked about the risks stemming from such debt and about the issues facing lawmakers, and I spoke about those topics again today. I will be making a similar presentation next week at the Employee-Owned S Corporations of America’s 2019 Federal Policy Conference.
Phillip L. Swagel is CBO’s Director.