This presentation summarizes the findings of CBO’s recent report The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook. CBO has also provided a narrated presentation highlighting the key aspects of the agency’s extended baseline projections.
Under current law, large budget deficits over the next 30 years are projected to drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels—from 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 144 percent by 2049. That projection incorporates CBO’s central estimates of various factors, such as productivity growth and interest rates on federal debt. CBO’s analysis indicates that even if values for those factors differed from the agency’s projections, under current law, debt several decades from now would probably be much higher than it is today.