CBO and JCT project that federal subsidies, taxes, and penalties associated with health insurance coverage for people under age 65 will result in a net subsidy from the federal government of $737 billion in 2019 and $1.3 trillion in 2029.
The federal government subsidizes health insurance for most Americans through a variety of programs and tax provisions. These slides highlight CBO’s recent estimates for the 2019–2029 period of the number of noninstitutionalized civilians under age 65 with health insurance and the federal costs associated with each kind of subsidy.
- In an average month for each year during that period, between 240 million and 242 million such people are projected to have health insurance, mostly from employment-based plans. But the number of people without health insurance is projected to rise from 30 million in 2019 to 35 million in 2029.
- Net federal subsidies for insured people will total $737 billion in 2019, according to estimates by CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT). That annual sum is projected to reach $1.3 trillion in 2029.
- In each year during the period, Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program account for between 40 percent and 45 percent of the federal subsidies, as do subsidies in the form of tax benefits for work-related insurance. Medicare accounts for about 10 percent, and subsidies for coverage obtained through the marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act or through the Basic Health Program account for less than 10 percent.