H.R. 1010 would prevent the Administration from implementing or enforcing a recent regulation aimed at increasing the number of people with short-term limited duration insurance (short-term plans) and would prohibit the Administration from promulgating similar regulations in the future.
CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the legislation would result in roughly 1.5 million fewer people purchasing short-term plans each year over the 2020-2029 period. Of those, more than 500,000 would instead purchase nongroup coverage through the marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act, a small number would obtain coverage through an employer, and about 500,000 would become uninsured. The agencies expect that additional enrollees in the nongroup market would have the effect of lowering nongroup premiums by about 1 percent on average because those enrollees are likely to be healthier than the average nongroup enrollee under current law.
On net, CBO and JCT estimate that enacting H.R. 1010 would decrease the deficit by $8.9 billion over the 2019-2029 period primarily because premiums for subsidized nongroup insurance would be lower. That amount includes a $7.8 billion reduction in direct spending and a $1.1 billion increase in revenues.
H.R. 1010 would impose a private-sector mandate as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA) by restricting the terms under which insurers may offer short-term plans. CBO estimates the cost of the mandate, which would include the revenue lost as a result of the restriction, would exceed the private-sector threshold established by UMRA in each of the first five years the mandate is in effect ($164 million in 2019, adjusted annually for inflation).