Presentation by Theresa Gullo, Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, and John McClelland, Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service for Congressional staff.
A few times each year, CBO produces a baseline budget projection—a detailed projection of federal spending, revenues, and resulting deficits for the current year and the subsequent 10 years, reflecting an assumption that current laws generally remain unchanged. That baseline serves as a neutral benchmark for measuring the budgetary effects of proposed changes in federal revenues and mandatory spending. It is the basis for CBO’s cost estimates for proposed legislation, analyses of the President’s annual budget, volume of policy options that would reduce the deficit, and assessments of multiyear budget trends. It is often a starting point for development of Congressional budget resolutions.
This presentation describes those baseline projections and how they are formulated. It also summarizes CBO’s most recent projections.
