Assuming enactment by the end of June 2018, CBO estimates that the provisions of H.R. 3 would reduce budget authority by approximately $15 billion and outlays by $1 billion over the 2018-2028 period. Further, CBO estimates that the combined budgetary effects of the President’s proposals would be the same as the contents of H.R. 3.
Outlay savings would be significantly lower that the amount of budget authority rescinded for two reasons. First, many of the amounts proposed for rescission have remained unspent by agencies for years; CBO reviewed the historical spending patterns of the affected accounts and concluded that most of the funding would not be spent under current law. Second, the administration has indicated that these proposals are aimed at reducing funding that is no longer necessary for agencies to fulfill the purposes for which it was originally appropriated by the Congress. In a letter from the Office of Management and Budget accompanying the President’s special messages, the Administration estimates that those proposals would reduce outlays by $3 billion.
On May 8, 2018, CBO transmitted a letter providing an estimate for two proposed rescissions (R18-15 and R18-17) included in the Administration’s transmission. Substantively identical proposals are included in H.R. 3, and the estimates provided in that letter are the same as those in this letter.
Further details about the reductions in budget authority and estimated outlays are displayed in the enclosed Table 1.