Updated Estimate for Health Care Legislation Pending in the House

November 6, 2009

Earlier today, I posted a blog about the cost estimate for the health care legislation pending in the House. I explained how the repeal of certain tax rules in H.R. 3962, the health care bill, would now generate less revenue because the rules would only be in effect for two years during the 2010-2019 period as a result of the unemployment legislation that was signed into law today. The original estimate for the impact of that repeal under H.R. 3962, about $26 billion over the 10-year period, will now be reduced to about $6 billion. CBO just issued an updated estimate for the health care bill, reflecting the fact that the additional revenues that would result from its enactment will be smaller than those shown in last nights estimate. Reflecting this change, CBO and the staff of Joint Committee of Taxation now estimate that, on balance, the direct spending and revenue effects of enacting H.R. 3962, incorporating the managers amendment, would yield a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $109 billion (rather than $129 billion) over the 2010-2019 period.