The Accuracy of CBO’s Outlay Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017

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CBO’s March 2016 projections of federal outlays for fiscal year 2017 were $65 billion—or 1.6 percent—more than the actual amount reported by OMB. By comparison, the mean absolute error for projections made for 1993 to 2016 is 2.3 percent.

An Analysis of the President’s 2019 Budget

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Over the next 10 years, the cumulative deficit under the President’s proposals would be $2.9 trillion less than the $12.4 trillion in CBO’s baseline. The deficit would average 3.7 percent of GDP, CBO estimates.

Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under Age 65: 2018 to 2028

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CBO and JCT project that the federal subsidies, taxes, and penalties associated with health insurance coverage for people under age 65 will result in a net subsidy from the federal government of $685 billion in 2018.

A Historical Survey of Ship Reactivations

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The Navy could use several approaches to increase the size of its fleet. This report focuses on reactivating decommissioned ships, drawing insights from past experiences that might inform lawmakers’ decisions about reactivating ships.

The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028

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In CBO’s projections, the economy grows relatively quickly this year and next and then more slowly in the following several years. The federal budget deficit rises substantially, boosting federal debt to nearly 100 percent of GDP by 2028.

The Distribution of Household Income, 2014

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In 2014, average household income before accounting for means-tested transfers and federal taxes was $19,000 for the lowest quintile and $281,000 for the highest quintile. After transfers and taxes, those averages were $31,000 and $207,000.
View Interactive Graphic

Interactive Graphic

Summary Figure 1.

Average Income, Means-Tested Transfers, and Federal Taxes per Household, by Income Group, 2014

Notes

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Income before transfers and taxes is market income plus social insurance benefts. Market income consists of labor income; business income; capital income (including capital gains); income received in retirement for past services; and other nongovernmental income sources. Social insurance benefts consist of benefts provided through Social Security (Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance); Medicare (measured as the average cost to the government of providing those benefts); unemployment insurance; and workers' compensation.

Means-tested transfers are cash payments and in-kind transfers from federal, state, and local governments. The largest means-tested transfers consist of transfers provided through Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (measured as the average cost to the government of providing those benefts); the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly known as the Food Stamp program); and Supplemental Security Income.

Federal taxes consist of individual income taxes, payroll taxes, corporate income taxes, and excise taxes.

Income after transfers and taxes is income before transfers and taxes plus means-tested transfers minus federal taxes.

Income groups are created by ranking households by income before transfers and taxes, adjusted for household size. Quintiles (ffths) contain an equal number of people. The lowest quintile does not include households with negative income.

For more detailed definitions of income, see the appendix and the section titled "Definitions."

* = less than $500.


Summary Figure 2.

Cumulative Growth in Average Income, by Income Group, 1979 to 2014

Percent


Notes

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

"Middle Quintiles" are incomes falling between the 21st and 80th percentiles.

Gray bars in the chart denote economic recessions.

Income before transfers and taxes is market income plus social insurance benefits.

Market income consists of labor income; business income; capital income (including capital gains); income received in retirement for past services; and other nongovernmental income sources. Social insurance benefts consist of benefts provided through Social Security (Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance); Medicare (measured as the average cost to the government of providing those benefts); unemployment insurance; and workers' compensation.

Means-tested transfers are cash payments and in-kind transfers from federal, state, and local governments. The largest means-tested transfers consist of transfers provided through Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (measured as the average cost to the government of providing those benefts); the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly known as the Food Stamp program); and Supplemental Security Income.

Federal taxes consist of individual income taxes, payroll taxes, corporate income taxes, and excise taxes.

Income after transfers and taxes is income before transfers and taxes plus means-tested transfers minus federal taxes.

Income groups are created by ranking households by income before transfers and taxes, adjusted for household size. Quintiles (fifths) contain equal numbers of people; percentiles (hundredths) contain equal numbers of people as well.

For more detailed definitions of income, see the appendix.
 

Comparing a 355-Ship Fleet With Smaller Naval Forces

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CBO estimates that the costs of achieving a 355-ship Navy under two different approaches would average over $100 billion annually through 2047. Those scenarios are compared with two others that would cost less and involve a smaller fleet.

Testimony on Seven Things to Know About CBO’s Analyses

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On February 27, 2018, CBO Director Keith Hall testified before the House Budget Committee, presenting seven important things to know about how CBO does its analysis.

How CBO and JCT Analyze Major Proposals That Would Affect Health Insurance Coverage

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The process for analyzing major health care legislation involves three key steps: develop an analytic strategy, model the effects of the proposal, and review and write about the estimate.

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