CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.
CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.
CBO projects that if the debt limit remains unchanged, there is a significant risk that at some point in the first two weeks of June, the government will no longer be able to pay all of its obligations.
Over recent decades, corporate economic profits have grown faster than the amounts that corporations pay in federal taxes. CBO examined the factors that explain why corporate tax payments have not grown with corporate economic profits.
The federal budget deficit was $928 billion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2023, CBO estimates—$568 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.
Because tax receipts through April have been less than CBO anticipated in February, the agency now estimates that there is a significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June if the debt ceiling is unchanged.
To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
CBO describes features of the Medicare and Medicaid improvement funds and how the funds are accounted for in CBO’s baseline and cost estimates.
CBO reports annually on programs whose authorizations of appropriations have already expired or will expire.
In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.