In the baseline projections CBO has issued each spring, projected outlays have generally been close to actual amounts, although they have been too high, on average—a consequence of the agency’s economic forecasts and other factors.
On the basis of estimates prepared by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, CBO reports a distributional analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act excluding the effects of eliminating the individual mandate penalty.
CBO has analyzed the distributional effects of changes in spending under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as of November 15, 2017, related to eliminating the penalty associated with the requirement that most people obtain health insurance coverage.
CBO and the JCT estimate that, by itself, repealing the mandate would reduce federal deficits by about $338 billion over the 2018–2027 period and increase the number of uninsured people by 4 million in 2019 and 13 million in 2027.
CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation estimate that repealing that mandate starting in 2019 would reduce federal budget deficits by $338 billion between 2018 and 2027 relative to CBO’s most recent baseline.
In fiscal year 2017, the budget deficit totaled $666 billion—$80 billion more than the shortfall recorded in 2016. Measured as a share of GDP, the deficit increased to 3.5 percent in 2017, up from 3.2 percent in 2016 and 2.4 percent in 2015.
CBO estimates that the Obama Administration’s 2017 plans for nuclear forces would cost $1.2 trillion (in 2017 dollars) over the 2017–2046 period. CBO analyzed nine options that would reduce those costs or delay some of them.
This report explains the changes to CBO’s long-term Social Security projections since last year. Compared with those made in July 2016, CBO’s latest projections indicate a slight improvement in the financial outlook for Social Security.
This report explains the various measures and approaches for quantifying the adequacy of retirement income, providing a framework for further analysis.
CBO examined possible changes to the Department of Defense’s Military Health System, analyzing the effects of those changes on the federal budget, the quality of military health care, and preparedness for wartime missions.