CBOLT is the main analytical tool that CBO uses to make long-term projections of the economy and federal budget. Those projections help shed light on fiscal challenges that extend beyond CBO’s standard 10-year projection window.
Last Monday, CBO released The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028. This week, CBO is publishing daily blog posts to share key excerpts from the report, and today’s post is about the agency’s projections of federal spending.
This afternoon I briefed the press about The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028, which CBO published today. I delivered the following summary of our analysis, with an accompanying slide deck.
The federal budget deficit was $598 billion for the first half of fiscal year 2018, CBO estimates, $71 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.
In 2014, average household income before accounting for means-tested transfers and federal taxes was $19,000 for the lowest quintile and $281,000 for the highest quintile. After transfers and taxes, those averages were $31,000 and $207,000.
CBO estimates that the costs of achieving a 355-ship Navy under two different approaches would average over $100 billion annually through 2047. Those scenarios are compared with two others that would cost less and involve a smaller fleet.
CBO estimates that the net cost of the TARP will total $32 billion—$1 billion less than it estimated in June 2017 because of a decrease in projected outlays for mortgage programs. Almost all of the TARP’s transactions have been completed.
The federal budget deficit was $392 billion for the first five months of fiscal year 2018, CBO estimates, $42 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.
View CBO’s updated budget infographics to see how much the federal government spent and took in during fiscal year 2017, as well as broader trends in the budget over the past few decades.