In this report, the latest in a quarterly series, CBO highlights its recent publications and summarizes its work in progress.
The federal budget deficit was $1.4 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2023, CBO estimates—$875 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.
CBO assesses its two-year and five-year economic forecasts and compares them with forecasts of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.
In CBO’s projections, spending for Social Security increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2033.
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.
CBO will release its long-term budget projections on June 28 and an update to its economic forecast for the next three years on July 31.
This week, four analysts from CBO's Health Analysis Division are presenting their work at the 12th Annual Conference of the American Society of Health Economists ("ASHEcon") in St. Louis, Missouri.
Deficit reductions under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 reduce projected federal debt in 2033 by about 3 percent, from $46.7 trillion (or 119 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP) to $45.2 trillion (or 115 percent of GDP).
The federal budget deficit was $1.2 trillion in the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, CBO estimates—$735 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.
CBO announces the current members of its Panel of Economic Advisers.