CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses the current budget and economic outlook.
CBO Blog
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion this year, and federal debt rises to 118 percent of GDP in 2035. Economic growth slows and inflation declines over the next two years; both remain moderate after 2026.
CBO Director Phillip Swagel describes the agency's primary responsibilities, explains how CBO can help Member offices, emphasizes the agency’s commitment to transparency, and lists what’s forthcoming from CBO.
CBO reports annually on programs whose authorizations of appropriations have already expired or will expire. This data file covers legislation enacted through September 30, 2024. A full report will be issued later this year.
In this report, the latest in a quarterly series, CBO highlights its recent publications and summarizes its work in progress.
In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million in 2055, and the average age rises. Beginning in 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for the growth.
The federal budget deficit totaled $710 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, the CBO estimates. That amount is $200 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year.
In its May 2023 budget projections for fiscal year 2024, CBO underestimated revenues by 1 percent and outlays by 6 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2024 was less than the actual amount by 1.1 percent of GDP.
CBO examines how its method for analyzing the distribution of household income differs from the Census Bureau’s method for calculating the official poverty measure. The most important differences stem from what each method counts as income.
Learn more about CBO’s work and its processes in a publication that is typically updated at the start of each Congress.