February 2015

  • Forty years ago today, Alice Rivlin was appointed Director of the Congressional Budget Office, and CBO began its service to the Congress and the country.

  • In calendar year 2014, ARRA—which was enacted in 2009—raised real GDP by between a small fraction of a percent and 0.2 percent and increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by between a slight amount and 0.2 million, CBO estimates.

  • CBO turns 40 on Tuesday, February 24 and is commemorating the event with a panel discussion about CBO's past and future featuring all seven former CBO directors. The event will be held on February 24 at the U.S. Capitol Visitor Center from 1:00 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. Join the conversation on Twitter using the event hashtag #CBOat40. The full media advisory can be found on the press page.

    Deborah Kilroe is CBO's Associate Director for Communications.

  • Up to 85 percent of a Social Security recipient’s benefits are subject to the individual income tax. CBO estimates that income taxes on Social Security benefits totaled $51 billion in 2014.

  • CBO’s forecasts generally have been comparable in quality to those of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, with large errors by CBO tending to reflect difficulties shared by other forecasters.

  • Businesses have become increasingly likely to choose the organizational structure that offers more favorable tax treatment. As a result, revenues are lower than they would otherwise be, but incentives for investment are probably greater.

  • For the latter half of its 10-year projection period, CBO projects that actual output will grow at the same rate as potential output but fall short of potential output by about half a percent, on average—matching its long-term average gap.

  • The federal government ran a budget deficit of $195 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2015, CBO estimates—$12 billion more than the shortfall recorded in the same span last year.

  • CBO examines the effect of energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) on the energy usage and energy costs of federal agencies, and on the federal budget.