From 2005 to 2014, private firms paid $11 billion per year, on average, to the federal government for the right to produce oil and gas on federal lands. CBO analyzes eight options for changing the leasing system for oil and gas development on federal lands in order to increase federal income modestly without significantly reducing production.

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CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that under the President’s proposals, the federal budget deficit would decline in 2017 and 2018. After that, however, outlays would rise more quickly than revenues, so deficits would grow. CBO and JCT project that, between 2017 and 2026, the President’s budget would result in deficits averaging about 3 percent of GDP and totaling $6.9 trillion, $2.4 trillion less than the deficits in CBO’s current-law baseline.

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CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation project that the federal subsidies, taxes, and penalties associated with health insurance coverage for the noninstitutionalized population under age 65 will result in a net subsidy from the federal government of $660 billion, or 3.6 percent of GDP, in 2016. For the entire 2017–2026 period, the projected net subsidy is $8.9 trillion.

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CBO estimates a $534 billion deficit for fiscal year 2016, about $100 billion more than last year’s deficit, but about $10 billion less than the agency estimated earlier this year. If current laws generally remained unchanged, deficits would increase in most years over the next decade, rising from 2.9 percent to 4.9 percent of gross domestic product, because government spending—particularly for Social Security, Medicare, and interest payments on the federal debt—is projected to outstrip revenue growth.

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CBO has analyzed the effects on the economy stemming from a set of paths for federal revenues and noninterest spending specified by Chairman Tom Price of the House Budget Committee and how those macroeconomic effects in turn would affect the federal budget. For comparison, CBO also analyzed the economic and budgetary outcomes of its extended baseline as well as three alternative paths.

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CBO's projections in this report do not represent an analysis of any specific policies. Read more about CBO’s role in budget resolutions.

Options for Increasing Federal Income From Crude Oil and Natural Gas on Federal Lands
An Analysis of the President’s 2017 Budget
Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under Age 65: 2016 to 2026
Updated Budget Projections: 2016 to 2026
Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Price, March 2016