In 2023, federal subsidies for health insurance minus certain related payments made to the federal government are estimated to be $1.8 trillion, or 7.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In CBO and JCT’s projections, those net subsidies grow substantially, reaching $3.3 trillion, or 8.3 percent of GDP, in 2033.

Over the 2024–2033 period, an average of 315.5 million people (91.5 percent of the population) are projected to have health insurance in any given month. Employment-based coverage is the predominant source of health insurance coverage, followed by Medicaid and Medicare.