In addition to its work on the outlook for the federal budget over the next 10 years, CBO also analyzes how specific current policies, such as Social Security and Medicare, affect the outlook for the federal budget over a longer time horizon. That analysis is less concerned with economic developments over the next few years and more concerned with the underlying trends in such economic factors as the labor force, productivity, and the costs of health care.
Long-Term Economic Trends
featured work
Long-Term Budget OutlookSep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
2012 Long-Term Projections for Social SecurityOct 2012 - Over the next 20 years, the population will age and spending on Social Security will increase from about 5 percent of GDP to about 6 percent.
The Long-Term Budgetary Impact of Paths for Federal Revenues and Spending Specified by Chairman RyanMar 2012 - The calculations presented here represent CBO's assessment of how the specified paths would alter the trajectories of federal debt, revenues, spending, and economic output relative to the trajectories under two scenarios that CBO has analyzed previously.
Raising the Ages of Eligibility for Medicare and Social SecurityJan 2012 - This issue brief reviews how ages of eligibility affect beneficiaries under current law and how delaying eligibility would affect beneficiaries, the federal budget, and the economy.
CBO's 2011 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: InfographicAug 2011 - CBO's first infographic summarizes some of the agency's most recent projections for Social Security and provides background information on the program.
latest work
Testimony on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportSeptember 26, 2013Press Briefing on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
presentationSeptember 23, 2013The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportSeptember 17, 2013Total Factor Productivity Growth in Historical Perspective: Working Paper 2013-01
working paperMarch 18, 2013Breakfast with Reporters
blog postJune 14, 2012CBO Testified on the Long-Term Budget Outlook
blog postJune 6, 2012Testimony on the 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportJune 6, 2012The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportJune 5, 2012
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