In addition to its work on the outlook for the federal budget over the next 10 years, CBO also analyzes how specific current policies, such as Social Security and Medicare, affect the outlook for the federal budget over a longer time horizon. That analysis is less concerned with economic developments over the next few years and more concerned with the underlying trends in such economic factors as the labor force, productivity, and the costs of health care.
Long-Term Economic Trends
Sep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Oct 2012 - Over the next 20 years, the population will age and spending on Social Security will increase from about 5 percent of GDP to about 6 percent.
The Long-Term Budgetary Impact of Paths for Federal Revenues and Spending Specified by Chairman Ryan
Mar 2012 - The calculations presented here represent CBO's assessment of how the specified paths would alter the trajectories of federal debt, revenues, spending, and economic output relative to the trajectories under two scenarios that CBO has analyzed previously.
Jan 2012 - This issue brief reviews how ages of eligibility affect beneficiaries under current law and how delaying eligibility would affect beneficiaries, the federal budget, and the economy.
Aug 2011 - CBO's first infographic summarizes some of the agency's most recent projections for Social Security and provides background information on the program.
Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07working paperDecember 6, 2013
- reportSeptember 26, 2013
- presentationSeptember 23, 2013
- reportSeptember 17, 2013
- working paperMarch 18, 2013
- blog postJune 14, 2012
- blog postJune 6, 2012
- reportJune 6, 2012
Use this menu to filter CBO's publications by topic. From January 2011 forward, all the agency's products are categorized by topic. Cost estimates released prior to the 112th Congress are not categorized by topic.