In addition to its work on the outlook for the federal budget over the next 10 years, CBO also analyzes how specific current policies, such as Social Security and Medicare, affect the outlook for the federal budget over a longer time horizon. That analysis is less concerned with economic developments over the next few years and more concerned with the underlying trends in such economic factors as the labor force, productivity, and the costs of health care.
Long-Term Economic Trends
featured work
2012 Long-Term Projections for Social SecurityOct 2012 - Over the next 20 years, the population will age and spending on Social Security will increase from about 5 percent of GDP to about 6 percent.
Long-Term Budget OutlookJun 2012 - The explosive path of federal debt under the fiscal scenario that many budget analysts believe is more representative of fiscal policies that are now or have recently been in effect underscores the need for large policy changes to put the federal government on a sustainable course.
The Long-Term Budgetary Impact of Paths for Federal Revenues and Spending Specified by Chairman RyanMar 2012 - The calculations presented here represent CBO's assessment of how the specified paths would alter the trajectories of federal debt, revenues, spending, and economic output relative to the trajectories under two scenarios that CBO has analyzed previously.
Raising the Ages of Eligibility for Medicare and Social SecurityJan 2012 - This issue brief reviews how ages of eligibility affect beneficiaries under current law and how delaying eligibility would affect beneficiaries, the federal budget, and the economy.
CBO's 2011 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: InfographicAug 2011 - CBO's first infographic summarizes some of the agency's most recent projections for Social Security and provides background information on the program.
latest work
Total Factor Productivity Growth in Historical Perspective: Working Paper 2013-01
working paperMarch 18, 2013Breakfast with Reporters
blog postJune 14, 2012CBO Testified on the Long-Term Budget Outlook
blog postJune 6, 2012Testimony on the 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportJune 6, 2012The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportJune 5, 2012The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook: Infographic
imageJune 5, 2012CBO Releases the 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook
blog postJune 5, 2012CBO to Release 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook Next Week
blog postMay 30, 2012
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