Economic Projections

CBO publishes 10-year forecasts of economic activity conditioned on the current laws governing federal spending and taxes. Those forecasts are typically released in January and August each year. The agency regularly evaluates the quality of its economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy’s actual performance and with forecasts by the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus—an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts. CBO also constructs long-term economic projections, with a focus on how budget policies would affect the economy and how those changes, in turn, would affect the federal budget.

  • Report August 27, 2014

    The deficit this year will be $506 billion, CBO estimates, about $170 billion lower than the deficit in 2013. After a weak first half of this year, CBO expects economic growth to pick up and the unemployment rate to continue to fall.

  • Report July 15, 2014

    If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2039 and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.

  • Report February 4, 2014

    Under current law, deficits will drop through 2015 but rise thereafter, boosting the already high federal debt, CBO projects. Economic growth will be solid in the near term, but unemployment will not drop below 6.0 percent until 2017.

  • Report February 4, 2014

    Since the recession ended in June 2009, employment has risen sluggishly and the unemployment rate has fallen only partway back to its prerecession level. This CBO report discusses the reasons for the slow recovery of the labor market.

  • Report July 25, 2013

    Projections of income earned by individuals and businesses are an integral part of CBO’s regular 10-year projections of the economy and a key component of its projections of federal revenues and outlays.

  • Report January 17, 2013

    CBO’s macroeconomic forecasts have been comparable in quality with those of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus.