Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Working Paper
Incorporating Longevity Effects into Long-Term Medicare Projections: Technical Paper 2004-02
The cost of the Medicare program will increase dramatically as the baby boom generation reaches retirement. Results from the CBO Long-Term Model indicate that Medicare costs will equal more than 9 percent of GDP by 2078.
- Working Paper
Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals: Technical Paper 2003-08
The effect upon Social Security benefits resulting from the introduction of individual accounts depends on potential risks and returns of private equities, yet evidence about determinants of stock market risks and returns is mixed.
- Working Paper
Modeling Long-Run Economic Growth: Technical Paper 2003-04
This paper reviews empirical literature on long-run growth to determine what factors influence growth in total factor productivity and whether there are any channels of influence that should be added to standard models of long-run growth.
- Working Paper
Mate Matching for Microsimulation Models: Technical Paper 2002-3
A description of the method used in CBO's main Social Security model to simulate who marries whom--which has important implications for projections of benefit levels.
- Working Paper
Projecting Longitudinal Marriage Patterns for Long-Run Policy Analysis: Technical Paper 2002-2
A description of the method used in CBO's main Social Security model to project an individual's marital status.