Long-Term Budget Analysis
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The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.
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An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033
CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.
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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033
In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.
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Long-Term Implications of the 2023 Future Years Defense Program
CBO analyzes the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) plans for 2023 through 2027 as presented in the 2023 Future Years Defense Program and projects that DoD’s costs would increase by 9 percent from 2027 to 2037 without the effects of inflation.
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CBO’s 2022 Long-Term Projections for Social Security
In CBO’s projections, spending on Social Security exceeds revenues to the program in 2022 and increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, while revenues remain stable. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in 2033.
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An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2023 Shipbuilding Plan
Under the three alternatives in the Navy’s 2023 plan, total shipbuilding costs would average about $30 billion to $33 billion per year (in 2022 dollars) through 2052, CBO estimates, as the Navy built a fleet of 316 to 367 battle force ships.
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The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook according to CBO's extended baseline projections, which show budget deficits and federal debt held by the public growing steadily in relation to gross domestic product over the next three decades.
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The Economic Effects of Waiting to Stabilize Federal Debt
CBO analyzes the economic effects of waiting to stabilize federal debt. The longer action is delayed, the larger the policy changes needed to stabilize debt. The timing and type of policy would determine its effects on different age and income groups.
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Federal Debt Under Alternative Paths for Interest Rates
CBO responds to Congressman Jason Smith's request for the agency's estimate of the effects of higher interest rates on federal debt over the long term.
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Long-Term Costs of the Administration’s 2022 Defense Budget
CBO analyzes DoD’s plans for 2022 as presented in the Biden Administration’s 2022 budget request and projects how those plans would affect defense costs through 2031. Those costs would increase by 10 percent over that period, CBO projects.