Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Working Paper
Incorporating Longevity Effects into Long-Term Medicare Projections: Technical Paper 2004-02
The cost of the Medicare program will increase dramatically as the baby boom generation reaches retirement. Results from the CBO Long-Term Model indicate that Medicare costs will equal more than 9 percent of GDP by 2078.
- Working Paper
Overview of the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) Policy Simulation Model: Technical Paper 2004-01
An overview of CBO's main Social Security model.
- Working Paper
Analyzing Tax Policy Changes Using a Stochastic OLG Model with Heterogeneous Households: Technical Paper 2003-12
This paper describes a stochastic overlapping generations (OLG) model with heterogeneous agents, which is one of five models used at the Congressional Budget Office for recent fiscal policy analyses.
- Working Paper
Factor Accumulation Without Diminishing Returns: The Case of East Asia: Technical Paper 2003-11
We investigate the similarity of the country endowments of the newly industrialized East Asian countries and their major developed trading partners since the 1960s.
- Working Paper
Using the Treasury Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Spread to Estimate Expected Long-Run Changes in the CPI-U under Inflation Uncertainty, Risk Aversion, and the Probability of Deflation: Technical Paper 2003-10
Yield spreads between rates on Treasury nominal and inflation-indexed securities are thought to be distorted measures of expected inflation because of various biases.
- Working Paper
A Putty-Clay Model of Business Fixed Investment: Technical Paper 2003-09
In this paper, I specify and estimate a model of investment using ex post fixed proportions, or putty-clay capital, for five categories of business fixed investment.
- Working Paper
Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals: Technical Paper 2003-08
The effect upon Social Security benefits resulting from the introduction of individual accounts depends on potential risks and returns of private equities, yet evidence about determinants of stock market risks and returns is mixed.
- Working Paper
Forecasting Deposit Growth: Forecasting BIF and SAIF Assessable and Insured Deposits: Technical Paper 2003-06
This paper develops a new method of forecasting growth in the deposits of financial institutions for use by CBO in projecting receipts and expenditures of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
- Working Paper
The FHA Budget Subsidy Simulation System: A Dynamic Simulation Model of Budget Outcomes for FHA Single-Family Mortgage Insurance: Technical Paper 2003-07
This paper introduces a dynamic simulation model of value to the government from FHA single-family mortgage insurance.
- Working Paper
International Trade and U.S. Productivity: Technical Paper 2003-05
We argue that trade can affect domestic productivity through economies-of-scale effects, competition effects, reallocation effects, and spillover effects. We then estimate the net impact of these effects.