Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
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Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on CBO’s Budget Projections Conducted by the Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth of the Senate Committee on Finance
The Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth of the Senate Committee on Finance convened a hearing at which Director Phillip Swagel testified. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
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Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing Conducted by the Senate Committee on the Budget on CBO’s Budget Projections
The Senate Budget Committee convened a hearing at which Director Phillip Swagel testified about the 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record by four Members of the Committee.
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Federal Net Interest Costs: A Primer
CBO describes federal net interest outlays and their projected growth over the coming decade.
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The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2020
In its 2019 projections for fiscal year 2020, CBO underestimated revenues by 9 percent and outlays by 3 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2020 was more than the actual amount by 0.5 percent of GDP.
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Testimony on CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies before the Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth of the Senate Finance Committee.
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Testimony on CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies before the Senate Budget Committee.
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The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO presents its projections of what federal deficits, debt, spending, and revenues would be for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change.
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An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030
CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $3.3 trillion in 2020, more than triple the shortfall recorded in 2019, mostly because of the economic disruption caused by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and the enactment of legislation in response.
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The Outlook for Major Federal Trust Funds: 2020 to 2030
CBO projects that the balances held by federal trust funds will fall by $43 billion in fiscal year 2020. Spending from the trust funds is projected to exceed income by $18 billion in 2021, a deficit that grows to $502 billion by 2030.
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An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Revenue Projections
The average error for CBO’s budget-year revenue projections is 1.2 percent, indicating the agency has tended to slightly overestimate revenues. For the agency’s sixth-year revenue projections, the average error is greater—5.6 percent.