Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
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How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2022 to 2032
To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how the budget might change if values of four key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
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Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies before the House Budget Committee.
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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032
In CBO’s projections, assuming that current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal deficit totals $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and averages $1.6 trillion per year from 2023 to 2032. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent this year.
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The Economic Effects of Waiting to Stabilize Federal Debt
CBO analyzes the economic effects of waiting to stabilize federal debt. The longer action is delayed, the larger the policy changes needed to stabilize debt. The timing and type of policy would determine its effects on different age and income groups.
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The Publication Date of CBO’s Baseline Projections and CBO’s Process for Setting Priorities
CBO responds to Senator Mike Braun's questions about the publication date of the agency's baseline projections and about how CBO prioritizes its work.
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Budgetary Effects of Higher Inflation and Interest Rates
In a letter to Senator Crapo, CBO responds to a request for a description of the budgetary effects of higher inflation and interest rates.
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The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2021
In its March 2020 projections for fiscal year 2021, CBO underestimated revenues by 15 percent and overestimated outlays by 4 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2021 was more than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.
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CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2021 Update
CBO assesses its two-year and five-year economic forecasts and compares them with forecasts of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.
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Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, November 2021
CBO projects that, if the debt limit remained unchanged and if the Treasury transferred $118 billion to the Highway Trust Fund on December 15, as currently planned, the Treasury would most likely run out of cash before the end of December.
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Estimated Revenue Effects of Increased Funding for the Internal Revenue Service in H.R. 5376, the Build Back Better Act
CBO estimates that the funding for tax enforcement activities provided by H.R. 5376, the Build Back Better Act, would increase outlays by $80 billion and revenues by $207 billion, thus decreasing the deficit by $127 billion, through 2031.