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Retirement

The federal government devotes a substantial and growing share of its budget to benefits for the nation's retirees through Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other programs. According to CBO’s projections, federal spending on the “big three” benefit programs will grow from less than half of all federal spending in 2012 to three-fifths in 2023. CBO projects federal spending for those programs under current law for the next decade and for the longer term, and it analyzes a wide range of proposals to change those programs. (See Health Care for further discussion of CBO’s work on federal health care programs.) Additionally, the exclusion of pension contributions and earnings from taxable income constitutes one of the largest preferences in the federal income tax code. Together with the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, CBO analyzes the budgetary and economic effects of such tax preferences and potential changes to them.

Sub-Topics:

  • Medicare
  • Pensions
  • Private Health Insurance
  • Social Security
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  • Supplemental Material

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  • Press Briefing on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook

related publications


  • Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023

    May 14, 2013
  • CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, as of May 2013, With Percentages of GDP Updated to Reflect Recent Revisions by the Bureau of Economic Analysis

    September 11, 2013
  • Updated Historical Budget Data Following BEA's Recent Update of the National Income and Product Accounts

    August 12, 2013
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The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook

report

September 17, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 1071 kb)

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H.R. 2810, Medicare Patient Access and Quality Improvement Act of 2013

cost estimate

September 13, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 46 kb)

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H.R. 2668, an act to delay the application of the individual health insurance mandate, to delay the application of the employer health insurance mandate, and for other purposes

cost estimate

September 6, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 35 kb)

related publications


  • Medicare—May 2013 Baseline

    May 14, 2013
  • How Have CBO’s Projections of Spending for Medicare and Medicaid Changed Since the August 2012 Baseline?

    February 21, 2013
  • Offsetting Effects of Prescription Drug Use on Medicare’s Spending for Medical Services

    November 29, 2012
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Why Has Growth in Spending for Fee-for-Service Medicare Slowed?: Working Paper 2013-06

working paper

August 22, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 602 kb)

related publications


  • S. 744, Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act

    July 03, 2013
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Letter to the Honorable Jeff Sessions Regarding S. 744

report

July 25, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 39 kb)

related publications


  • Technical Paper 2004-09: Health Shocks and the Demand for Annuities

    July 02, 2004
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Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality Probabilities: Working Paper 2013-05

working paper

June 26, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 1881 kb)

  • Supplemental Material

  • Methods for Analysis of the Financing and Use of Long-Term Services and Supports

related publications


  • Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries of Medicare and Medicaid: Characteristics, Health Care Spending, and Evolving Policies

    June 06, 2013
  • Financing Long-Term Care for the Elderly

    April 01, 2004
  • Projections of Expenditures for Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly

    March 01, 1999
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Rising Demand for Long-Term Services and Supports for Elderly People

report

June 26, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 574 kb)

related publications


  • Rising Demand for Long-Term Services and Supports for Elderly People

    June 26, 2013
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Methods for Analysis of the Financing and Use of Long-Term Services and Supports

data or technical information

June 26, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 90 kb)

related publications


  • Estimates for the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act Updated for the Recent Supreme Court Decision

    July 24, 2012
  • Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Insurance Coverage

    May 14, 2013
  • CBO’s Estimate of the Net Budgetary Impact of the Affordable Care Act’s Health Insurance Coverage Provisions Has Not Changed Much Over Time

    May 14, 2013
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Understanding CBO’s Medicaid Coverage Projections Under the Affordable Care Act

presentation

June 24, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 196 kb)

related publications


  • Offsetting Effects of Prescription Drug Use on Medicare’s Spending for Medical Services

    November 29, 2012
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Offsetting Effects of Prescription Drug Use on Medicare’s Spending for Medical Services

presentation

June 24, 2013

read complete document  (pdf, 211 kb)

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