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February 11, 2013
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Growth in Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income HouseholdsFeb 2013 - During the past 40 years, federal spending for major means-tested programs and tax credits for low-income households more than tripled as a share of gross domestic product. In 2012, such spending totaled $588 billion.

Terry Dinan
Imposing a tax on carbon dioxide emissions would reduce the damage from climate change but would also impose a larger burden, relative to income, on low-income households than on high-income households. This paper evaluates two broad groupings of options for reducing the regressive effects of a carbon tax; one group of options would affect large segments of the economy, for example by reducing payroll taxes, and the other group of options would be targeted at low-income households, for example by providing an additional payment to households currently receiving electronic transfer benefits. Each option is evaluated based on the percent of low-income households that it would affect, whether it would provide comparatively larger benefits for lower-income households, its administrative costs, and its implications for economic efficiency, specifically whether it would increase incentives to work and invest and whether it would preserve the incentives to reduce emissions that the carbon tax would create. The broad based options could potentially provide support for a relatively large share of low-income households, but some of those options would provide relatively small benefits to those households. Options specifically targeting low-income households could be most effective in reaching households that do not file income taxes or that do not have earnings. Three of the seven options considered would increase the incentive to work or invest and all but one of the options would preserve the incentive to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide.

Expansions in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) are associated with increases in formal employment and increases in long-term year-over-year growth in earnings for single mothers. In this study, we examine whether expansions in the EITC are likely to lead to increases in Social Security retirement benefits for less-educated women (those likely to be affected by the EITC) by increasing their employment and earnings when young.
The increases in benefits could occur through two channels: First, as the EITC pulls additional less-educated women into market work, those women may accrue more quarters of employment and thus be more likely to qualify for Social Security retirement benefits. Second, to the extent that the EITC leads to increased earnings growth, less-educated women may qualify for higher benefits.
We rely on administrative earnings data from the Social Security Administration and existing estimates of the effect of the EITC on employment and earnings growth to simulate the impact of an EITC expansion on the future Social Security retirement benefits of less-educated women. The results of this simulation suggest that the EITC leads to an increase in the share of less-educated women that will be eligible for Social Security retirement benefits and leads to an increase in their monthly benefit amount. Thus, the existence of the EITC contributes to the financial security of affected women as they age and retire.