Congressional Budget Office

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Employment and Labor Markets

The level of employment has a direct effect on people's well-being and the government's finances. When employment is higher, incomes and federal revenues are higher, while federal outlays for income support programs are lower. CBO analyzes the causes and consequences of unemployment, the effects of the unemployment insurance program, the impact of various policy proposals that might affect employment, and other issues concerning labor markets such as people's participation in the labor force.

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  • Federal Personnel
  • Labor Markets
  • Economic Stimulus
  • NAFTA

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  • Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from January 2012 Through March 2012

    May 25, 2012
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Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies: Working Paper 2012-08

working paper

May 25, 2012

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Abstract

Changes in federal fiscal policies can have both short-term and long-term effects on output. The Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of the short-term effects focuses on the impact on the demand for goods and services. That impact can be decomposed into direct effects and indirect effects: Direct effects consist of changes in purchases of goods and services by federal agencies and by the people and organizations who are recipients of federal payments or payers of federal taxes; indirect effects enhance or offset the direct effects. The indirect effects can be summarized by a demand multiplier, defined as the total change in gross domestic product per dollar of direct effect on demand. This paper presents the ranges of demand multipliers that CBO uses in its analyses and reviews evidence on the size of those multipliers.

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CBO Analyzes Effects of Fiscal Restraint Scheduled Under Current Law

blog post

May 22, 2012


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Economic Effects of Reducing the Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled to Occur in 2013

report

May 22, 2012

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H.R. 4363, Federal Employee Phased Retirement Act

cost estimate

May 18, 2012

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H.R. 1838, Swaps Bailout Prevention Act

cost estimate

May 4, 2012

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H.R. 4078, Regulatory Freeze for Jobs Act of 2012

cost estimate

April 20, 2012

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Unemployment Compensation and Trade Adjustment Assistance for Workers: CBO's Baseline and Estimates of the President's 2013 Budget

data or technical information

March 20, 2012

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related publications


  • Comparing the Compensation of Federal and Private-Sector Employees

    January 30, 2012

  • Comparing Wages in the Federal Government and the Private Sector

    January 30, 2012
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Comparing Benefits and Total Compensation in the Federal Government and the Private Sector

working paper

January 30, 2012

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Abstract

This analysis integrated Current Population Survey data from 2005 through 2010 with data on a wide range of employee benefits to compare the cost of those benefits for federal employees and for workers in the private sector who have certain similar observable characteristics. In that comparison, we found that the average cost of benefits was about 72 percent higher for federal employees than for their private-sector counterparts among workers with no more than a high school education, was about 46 percent higher in the federal sector among workers with a bachelor’s degree, and was about the same in the two sectors among workers with a professional degree or Ph.D. Overall, federal benefits were about 48 percent higher, on average, than the benefits received by measurably similar private-sector workers. The most important factor contributing to differences between the two sectors in the costs of benefits is the defined-benefit pension plan that is available to most federal employees. Such plans are becoming less common in the private sector.

Benefits accounted for about 39 percent of total compensation (the sum of wages and benefits) in the federal sector versus 30 percent of total compensation at large firms in the private sector. We found that the average of total compensation was about 36 percent higher for federal employees than for their private-sector counterparts among workers with no more than a high school education, was about 15 percent higher among workers with a bachelor’s degree, and was about 18 percent lower among workers with a professional degree or Ph.D. Overall, total compensation for federal employees was about 16 percent higher, on average, than total compensation for measurably similar workers in the private sector.

These estimates do not show precisely what the compensation of federal workers would be if they were employed in the private sector. The difference between federal employees’ compensation and what that compensation would be in the private sector could be larger or smaller depending on characteristics that were not included in this analysis because such traits are not easy to measure. These estimates of the costs of benefits are much more uncertain than the estimates of wages, primarily because the cost of defined-benefit pensions that will be paid in the future is more difficult to quantify and because less-detailed data are available about benefits than about wages.


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Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund - March 2012 Baseline

data or technical information

March 13, 2012

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Small Firms, Employment, and Federal Policy

report

March 12, 2012

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Highlights

New Small Firms Account for a Disproportionate Share of Net Job Growth

Small firms, widely believed to promote job growth, both create and eliminate jobs at higher rates than large firms do. Although small firms account for a disproportionate share of net job growth, that greater growth is driven primarily by new small firms.

In Recent Years, Small and Medium-Sized Firms Suffered Disproportionately Greater Job Losses Than Large Firms

Firm Size, by Employee CountChange in the Number of Workers Between December 2007 and December 2010
Fewer than 50 workers-7.1 percent
50 to 499 workers-8.1 percent
500 or more workers-5.4 percent

Varying Policies by Firm Size Has Advantages and Disadvantages for Job Growth

Policies that help reduce the cost to small firms of complying with federal regulations could promote employment growth. But policies favoring small firms could also discourage them from growing in order to retain that preferential treatment. Moreover, easing some regulations for small firms could cause certain problems, such as pollution, to persist more than if regulations were applied uniformly across firms of different sizes. 

Current Federal Laws and Regulations Give More Favorable Treatment to Small Firms Than Larger Firms in Many Ways

Small firms receive more favorable treatment than larger firms through:

  • A reduced capital gains tax for investments in small firms,
  • Tax provisions having the effect of allowing small firms to immediately deduct a larger share of their costs for certain capital investments,
  • Assistance from the Small Business Administration, and  
  • Exemptions from some regulatory policies, such as the Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993.


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