Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Economists Club.
Summary
If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged, the federal budget deficit would grow substantially over the next few years, CBO projects, with accumulating deficits driving debt held by the public to nearly 100 percent of GDP by 2028. That amount would be far greater than the debt in any year since just after World War II.
In CBO’s projections, real GDP growth is relatively strong this year and next, as recent changes in fiscal policy add to existing momentum. Between 2018 and 2028, real GDP expands at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent: Productivity growth returns to nearly its average over the past 25 years and recent changes in fiscal policy boost incentives to work, save, and invest; nonetheless, economic growth is held down by slower growth of the labor force.
This presentation provides an overview of the agency’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on April 9. It also includes a discussion of the effects of the 2017 tax act on those projections.