Letter to the Honorable Jeff Sessions regarding the effect that S. 744, as passed by the Senate, would have on the federal budget excluding changes in direct spending and revenues for the Social Security and Medicare Part A trust funds
In the cost estimate for S. 744 as passed by the Senate, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimated that the effects of enacting the legislation on revenues and direct spending would reduce deficits by $158 billion over the 2014–2023 period and by $685 billion over the 2024–2033 period; those estimates are unchanged.
Those total effects on the deficit reflect estimated cash flows related to Social Security and Part A of Medicare as well as estimated cash flows associated with other revenues and direct spending. As shown in the attached table, CBO and JCT estimate that the act’s effects on those two programs would reduce budget deficits by $260 billion over the 2014–2023 period and by $715 billion over the following decade. Thus, excluding the act’s effects on direct spending and revenues for the (off-budget) Social Security trust funds and the (on-budget) Medicare Part A trust fund, CBO and JCT estimate that the remaining effects from enacting S. 744 would amount to a deficit increase of $102 billion over the 2014–2023 period and a deficit increase of $30 billion over the 2024–2033 period.