CBO Releases Latest Quarterly Report on ARRA’s Effect on Output and Employment

May 25, 2012

As required by law, CBO prepares regular reports on its estimate of the number of jobs created by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), which was enacted in response to significant weakness in the economy. In its latest report issued this afternoon, CBO provides estimates of ARRA’s impact on employment and economic output in the first quarter of calendar year 2012, as well as over the entire period since February 2009.

CBO’s current estimates of the economic effects of ARRA for 2009 through 2013 are virtually identical to those the agency published in February 2012. Some estimates of quarterly economic effects for 2012 have changed slightly, reflecting a small increase in projected ARRA outlays for 2012, combined with minor shifts in the quarterly pattern of that spending.

For a more detailed discussion of CBO’s approach to analyzing short-term fiscal policy, see CBO’s Working Paper 2012-08, Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies, also published today.

This report was prepared by Felix Reichling of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division.