March 29, 2012
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has reviewed S. 1813, the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, as passed by the Senate on March 14, 2012. CBO estimates that enacting the legislation would increase both direct spending and revenues; therefore, pay-as-you-go procedures apply. Together, CBO estimates that those changes would reduce future deficits by $15.3 billion over the 2012-2017 period and by $10.0 billion over the 2012-2022 period. CBO also estimates that implementing S. 1813 would have discretionary costs of $50.6 billion over the 2012-2017 period, assuming appropriation actions consistent with the legislation.
In addition, CBO estimates that implementing provisions of S. 1813 for the remainder of 2012 and for 2013 would result in an end-of-year balance in 2013 of approximately $4 billion in the highway account of the Highway Trust Fund and about $3 billion in the transit account of the Highway Trust Fund.
CBO and staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation estimate that over the 2012-2022 period, S. 1813 would require transfers totaling $13.9 billion to the Highway Trust Fund from the General Fund of the Treasury ($5 billion), certain tariffs collected on imported goods ($4.5 billion), a portion of the balances and future amounts expected to be credited to the Leaking Underground Storage Tank Trust Fund ($4.7 billion), and amounts expected to be collected from the existing gas guzzler tax on certain vehicles ($0.7 billion). Those transferred amounts are included in the estimates of the balances that would be available in the Highway Trust Fund that are displayed in Table 3; such intergovernmental transfers would enable prompt liquidation of current and future obligations of the Highway Trust Fund.
The legislation, as passed by the Senate, includes a number of provisions that were not included in the cost estimate that CBO transmitted on March 7, 2012, for S. 1813 with an amendment number 1761. Specifically, the legislation passed by the Senate would require that certain penalties paid in connection with the April 2010 explosion at the Deepwater Horizon facility in the Gulf of Mexico be directed to certain Gulf Coast States and would reauthorize mandatory payments to certain states and counties that contain federal land. The legislation also would raise additional revenues from certain changes to pension funds and authorize spending on uranium enrichment activities.
To remain consistent with cost estimates provided when the legislation was being considered, this cost estimate is relative to CBO’s January 2012 baseline and has not been updated to reflect changes in our recently completed March baseline.
Since October 2011, CBO has prepared cost estimates for the following bills that contain provisions that are in S. 1813 or are similar to provisions in the Senate-passed legislation:
- S. 1813, the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works on November 9, 2011, with legislative language provided to CBO on February 2, 2012;
- S. 1449, the Motor Vehicle and Highway Safety Improvement Act of 2011, as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on December 14, 2011;
- S. 1950, the Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety Enhancement Act of 2011, as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on December 14, 2011;
- S. 1952, the Hazardous Material Transportation Safety Improvement Act of 2011, as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on December 14, 2011;
- S. 1953, the Research and Innovative Technology Administration Reauthorization Act of 2011, as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on December 14, 2011;
- The Federal Public Transportation Act as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on February 2, 2012;
- The Highway Investment, Job Creation, and Economic Growth Act of 2012, as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Finance on February 13, 2012;
- S. 1813, the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, with an Amendment, Number 1761, on March 7, 2012; and
- S. 1400, the Resources and Ecosystems Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act of 2011 on October 19, 2011.
Those cost estimates provide further details on the cost of components of S. 1813. The CBO staff contact is Sarah Puro.