Using Time-Series Models to Project Output Over the Medium Term: Technical Paper 2002-1

Working Paper
September 1, 2002

Ufuk Demiroglu and Matthew Salomon

This paper examines how multivariate time-series models might be used to project output over the medium term—that is, over a 10-year span. Fairly simple time-series models are known to yield short-term forecasts comparable in accuracy with those of large-scale macroeconometric models. Could the information embodied in projections based on time-series models be informative to the Congressional Budget Office in constructing its own medium-term projections of output?