Congressional Budget Office

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Taxes

Over the past 40 years, federal revenues have ranged from nearly 21 percent of GDP, in fiscal year 2000, to less than 16 percent, in fiscal years 2009 through 2012; they have averaged about 18 percent of GDP over the four decades. In addition to projecting the future course of federal revenues, CBO analyzes the budgetary and economic effects of various features of the federal tax system and the effects of potential changes to current tax rules.

Sub-Topics:

  • Analysis of the President's Budget
  • Budget and Economic Outlook
  • Distribution of Federal Taxes

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The Federal Budget Deficit for 2011—$1.3 Trillion

blog post

October 7, 2011


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Presentation to the NBER’s Conference on Tax Policy and the Economy

blog post

October 7, 2011


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The Portion of the Deficit Due to Cyclical Weakness

report

October 4, 2011

read complete document  (pdf, 617 kb)

Abstract

In a September 27, 2011, letter, the Honorable Chris Van Hollen requested an estimate of the portion of the federal deficit that is due to the current underutilization of capital and labor resources in the economy. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that if those resources were not underutilized—that is, if the economy was operating at its potential level—the projected federal deficit under current law in fiscal year 2012 would be about a third lower, or roughly $630 billion instead of the $973 billion projected in CBO’s most recent baseline. That deficit would be equal to about 4.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with the 6.2 percent deficit projected for 2012 in CBO’s baseline. If the economy was operating at its potential, the deficit would be lower because incomes and, therefore, revenues would be higher, while the rate of unemployment and, therefore, outlays for certain government programs would be lower.


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More from CBO’s Update of the Budget and Economic Outlook: Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in the Next Few Years

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September 1, 2011


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More from CBO’s Update of the Budget and Economic Outlook: Persistent Effects of the Recent Recession on Potential Output

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September 2, 2011


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The Federal Budget Deficit: $1.23 Trillion Through the First 11 Months of 2011

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September 8, 2011


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Testimony Before the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction

blog post

September 13, 2011


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Presentation at the Macroeconomic Advisers’ Washington Policy Conference

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September 15, 2011


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Some Context for Thinking About Deficit Reduction: Federal Revenues

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September 27, 2011


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Some Context for Thinking About Deficit Reduction: Implications for Future Budget Policy

blog post

September 30, 2011


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