Appendix
B

CBO’s Economic Projections for 2009 to 2019

The tables in this appendix expand on the information in the body of the report by showing the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) year-by-year economic projections for 2009 to 2019 (by calendar year in Table B-1 and by fiscal year in Table B-2). CBO does not forecast cyclical fluctuations in its projections for years after 2010. Instead, the projected values shown in the tables for 2011 to 2019 reflect CBO’s assessment of average values for that period. That assessment takes into account economic and demographic trends but does not attempt to forecast the frequency and size of ups and downs in the business cycle.

Table B-1.  

CBO’s Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Calendar Years 2009 to 2019

Untitled Document
Estimated
Forecast
Projected
2008a
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
                               
Nominal GDP
(Billions of dollars)
14,304
 
14,241
14,591
 
15,347
16,293
17,280
18,211
19,077
19,909
20,749
21,617
22,500
Nominal GDP         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
(Percentage change)
3.6
 
-0.4
2.5
 
5.2
6.2
6.1
5.4
4.8
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
Real GDP         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
(Percentage change)
1.2
 
-2.2
1.5
 
4.2
4.4
4.1
3.5
2.8
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
GDP Price Index         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
(Percentage change)
2.4
 
1.8
0.9
 
1.0
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
PCE Price Indexb         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
(Percentage change)
3.3
 
0.6
1.3
 
1.3
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
Core PCE Price Indexc         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
(Percentage change)
2.2
 
1.5
0.9
 
1.2
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
Consumer Price Indexd         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
(Percentage change)
4.1
 
0.1
1.7
 
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Core Consumer Price Indexe         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
(Percentage change)
2.3
 
1.6
1.3
 
1.6
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Employment Cost Indexf         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
(Percentage change)
3.0
 
2.7
2.7
 
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
Unemployment Rate         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
(Percent)
5.7
 
8.3
9.0
 
8.0
6.8
5.8
5.1
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
Three-Month Treasury         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
Bill Rate (Percent)
1.4
 
0.2
0.6
 
2.1
4.0
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
Ten-Year Treasury         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
Note Rate (Percent)
3.7
 
3.0
3.2
 
3.6
4.7
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
          
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
Tax Bases
(Billions of dollars)		         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
Economic profits
1,533
 
1,384
1,413
 
1,559
1,715
1,856
1,952
2,001
2,041
2,084
2,139
2,187
Wages and salaries
6,548
 
6,551
6,740
 
7,011
7,472
7,920
8,344
8,742
9,127
9,517
9,916
10,324
          
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
Tax Bases
(Percentage of GDP)		         
 
 
         
 
         
 
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
         
 
Economic profits
10.7
 
9.7
9.7
 
10.2
10.5
10.7
10.7
10.5
10.3
10.0
9.9
9.7
Wages and salaries
45.8
 
46.0
46.2
 
45.7
45.9
45.8
45.8
45.8
45.8
45.9
45.9
45.9

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor ­Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.

Note: GDP = gross domestic product; percentage changes are measured from one year to the next.

a. Values as of December 10, 2008.

b. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index.

c. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index excluding prices for food and energy.

d. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.

e. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.

f. The employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry.

Table B-2.  

CBO’s Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019

Untitled Document
Actual
Forecast
Projected
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
                             
Nominal GDP
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Billions of dollars)
14,224
 
14,257
14,452
 
15,137
16,048
17,035
17,986
18,864
19,703
20,537
21,397
22,278
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nominal GDP
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percentage change)
4.3
 
0.2
1.4
 
4.7
6.0
6.1
5.6
4.9
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Real GDP
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percentage change)
1.9
 
-1.9
0.4
 
3.8
4.4
4.2
3.7
3.0
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GDP Price Index
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percentage change)
2.4
 
2.1
1.0
 
0.9
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PCE Price Indexa
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percentage change)
3.7
 
0.7
1.4
 
1.2
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Core PCE Price Indexb
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percentage change)
2.3
 
1.7
1.0
 
1.1
1.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Consumer Price Indexc
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percentage change)
4.4
 
0.5
1.4
 
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Core Consumer Price Indexd
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percentage change)
2.4
 
1.8
1.4
 
1.5
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment Cost Indexe
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percentage change)
3.1
 
2.7
2.6
 
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unemployment Rate
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percent)
5.3
 
7.7
9.1
 
8.3
7.1
6.0
5.3
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Three-Month Treasury
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Bill Rate (Percent)
2.1
 
0.2
0.4
 
1.6
3.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ten-Year Treasury
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Note Rate (Percent)
3.9
 
3.1
3.1
 
3.5
4.4
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax Bases
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Billions of dollars)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Economic profits
1,564
 
1,413
1,390
 
1,521
1,677
1,823
1,933
1,991
2,032
2,071
2,125
2,176
Wages and salaries
6,522
 
6,549
6,649
 
6,950
7,360
7,808
8,241
8,644
9,031
9,419
9,815
10,221
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax Bases
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Percentage of GDP)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Economic profits
11.0
 
9.9
9.6
 
10.0
10.4
10.7
10.7
10.6
10.3
10.1
9.9
9.8
Wages and salaries
45.8
 
45.9
46.0
 
45.9
45.9
45.8
45.8
45.8
45.8
45.9
45.9
45.9

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor ­Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.

Note: GDP = gross domestic product; percentage changes are measured from one year to the next.

a. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index.

b. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index excluding prices for food and energy.

c. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.

d. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.

e. The employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry.

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