Table 1. 

CBO’s Projections of the Present Value of Total Outlays and Revenues for the 2008–2082 Period as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Under Various Budget Scenarios

		Revenues		Outlays		Fiscal Gapa
Extended-Baseline Scenariob		22.1		23.8		1.7
Variations of the Extended-Baseline Scenariob
	Eliminate Medicare Part D beginning in 2008	22.1		22.9		0.8
	Extend individual income tax provisions of major tax billsc	21.4		23.8		2.4
	Eliminate Medicare Part D beginning in 2008 and extend individual income tax provisions of major tax billsc	21.4		22.9		1.5
Memorandum:
Alternative Fiscal Scenariod		19.2		26.1		6.9

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Note: AMT = alternative minimum tax.

a. The extended-baseline scenario adheres closely to current law, following CBO’s 10-year baseline budget projections from 2008 to 2017 and then extending the baseline concept in its projections for the rest of the years in the 75-year projection period, to 2082.

b. The fiscal gap is the immediate and permanent change in spending or revenues that would reduce the government’s projected debt in 2082 to its current level as a share of GDP.

c. Specifically, provisions of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, and the Working Families Tax Relief Act of 2004. CBO did not assess the effects of permanently extending provisions applicable to the estate and gift tax.

d. The alternative fiscal scenario deviates from CBO’s baseline projections even during the next 10 years, incorporating some changes in policy that are widely expected to occur and that policymakers have regularly made in the past.

Table 2. 

CBO’s Projections of the Primary Deficit, Net Interest Costs, and the Total Deficit in 2082 as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Under Various Budget Scenarios

		Primary Deficita		Net Interest		Total Deficit
Extended-Baseline Scenariob		7.1		11.0		18.1
Variations of the Extended-Baseline Scenariob
	Eliminate Medicare Part D beginning in 2008	4.9		5.9		10.8
	Extend individual income tax provisions of major tax billsc	7.8		15.1		22.9
	Eliminate Medicare Part D beginning 2008 and extend individual income tax provisions of major tax billsc	5.7		10.0		15.7
Memorandum:
Alternative Fiscal Scenariod		14.4		40.1		54.5

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

a. The primary deficit equals all outlays other than those for net interest minus revenues.

b. The extended-baseline scenario adheres closely to current law, following CBO’s 10-year baseline budget projections from 2008 to 2017 and then extending the baseline concept in its projections for the rest of the years in the 75-year projection period, to 2082.

c. Specifically, provisions of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, and the Working Families Tax Relief Act of 2004. CBO did not assess the effects of permanently extending provisions applicable to the estate and gift tax.

d. The alternative fiscal scenario deviates from CBO’s baseline projections even during the next 10 years, incorporating some changes in policy that are widely expected to occur and that policymakers have regularly made in the past.

Table 3. 

CBO’s Projections of Debt as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Under Various Budget Scenarios

			Variations of the Extended-Baseline Scenarioa
	Extended Baseline Scenarioa		Eliminate Medicare Part D Beginning in 2008		Extend Individual Income Tax Provisions of Major Tax Billsb		Eliminate Medicare Part D Beginning in 2008 and Extend Individual Income Tax Provisions of Major Tax Billsb		Memorandum: Alternative Fiscal Scenarioc
2007	36		36		36		36		36
2008	36		36		36		36		36
2009	35		35		35		35		36
2010	34		34		34		34		36
2011	32		32		34		34		36
2012	30		30		33		33		37
2013	28		28		32		32		38
2014	26		26		31		31		39
2015	24		24		30		30		41
2016	22		22		29		29		43
2017	20		20		28		28		45
2018	18		18		27		27		47
2019	17		16		27		26		50
2020	15		14		26		25		53
2021	14		12		26		24		56
2022	13		11		26		24		60
2023	12		9		26		23		64
2024	12		8		27		23		68
2025	11		7		28		24		73
2026	11		6		29		24		79
2027	11		6		30		24		85
2028	12		5		31		25		90
2029	12		5		32		25		96
2030	12		5		34		26		103
2031	13		4		36		27		109
2032	14		5		38		28		116
2033	15		5		39		29		123
2034	16		5		42		30		131
2035	18		5		44		32		139
2036	19		6		46		33		147
2037	21		6		49		34		156
2038	23		7		52		36		165
2039	24		8		55		38		174
2040	26		8		57		39		183
2041	28		9		61		41		193
2042	30		10		64		43		203
2043	33		11		67		45		213
2044	35		12		70		47		223
2045	37		13		74		49		234
2046	40		14		77		51		245
2047	42		15		81		53		257
2048	45		16		84		56		268
2049	47		17		88		58		280
2050	50		18		92		60		292
2051	53		20		96		63		304
2052	56		21		101		65		317
2053	60		23		105		68		330
2054	63		24		109		71		344
2055	66		26		114		73		357
2056	70		28		119		76		372
2057	74		29		124		80		386
2058	78		31		129		83		401
2059	82		34		134		86		415
2060	87		36		140		90		431
2061	91		38		146		94		447
2062	96		41		152		98		463
2063	101		44		158		102		479
2064	106		47		165		106		495
2065	111		50		171		110		512
2066	117		53		178		115		529
2067	123		56		185		120		547
2068	129		60		193		125		565
2069	135		64		200		130		584
2070	142		68		208		135		602
2071	149		72		217		141		622
2072	156		76		225		147		641
2073	163		81		234		152		661
2074	170		85		243		159		681
2075	178		90		252		165		701
2076	186		95		262		172		721
2077	194		100		272		178		743
2078	203		106		282		185		765
2079	211		111		292		193		787
2080	221		117		303		200		810
2081	230		123		314		208		835
2082	240		130		326		217		859