Budget Projections Tables

CBO’s Baseline Budget Projections

																Total,	Total,
				Actual												2009-	2009-
				2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2013	2018


				In Billions of Dollars

Revenues
	Individual income taxes			1,163	1,211	1,340	1,399	1,611	1,753	1,863	1,962	2,070	2,184	2,307	2,438	7,966	18,928
	Corporate income taxes			370	364	356	334	333	357	327	342	350	361	374	388	1,707	3,522
	Social insurance taxes			870	910	947	997	1,049	1,101	1,149	1,199	1,249	1,301	1,355	1,411	5,244	11,758
	Other			164	169	174	177	188	231	245	260	272	285	298	311	1,016	2,441

		Total		2,568	2,654	2,817	2,907	3,182	3,442	3,585	3,763	3,941	4,131	4,334	4,548	15,933	36,649
			On-budget	1,933	1,990	2,123	2,177	2,414	2,636	2,743	2,883	3,024	3,175	3,337	3,509	12,093	28,020
			Off-budget	635	665	694	730	768	806	842	880	918	957	997	1,039	3,839	8,629

Outlays
	Mandatory spending			1,450	1,550	1,654	1,737	1,846	1,884	2,022	2,138	2,270	2,451	2,578	2,706	9,142	21,285
	Discretionary spending			1,042	1,089	1,121	1,145	1,170	1,186	1,216	1,243	1,272	1,307	1,335	1,360	5,838	12,356
	Net interest			238	234	241	266	283	286	285	285	282	278	271	259	1,360	2,735

		Total		2,731	2,873	3,015	3,148	3,299	3,355	3,524	3,666	3,824	4,037	4,183	4,325	16,341	36,376
			On-budget	2,277	2,404	2,519	2,628	2,757	2,788	2,926	3,037	3,160	3,334	3,439	3,536	13,618	30,124
			Off-budget	454	469	496	520	541	568	597	629	664	702	744	789	2,723	6,251

Deficit (-) or Surplus				-163	-219	-198	-241	-117	87	61	96	117	95	151	223	-408	274
	On-budget			-344	-414	-396	-450	-343	-151	-184	-154	-136	-160	-102	-27	-1,525	-2,104
	Off-budget			181	195	198	210	226	238	244	251	254	254	253	249	1,117	2,378

Debt Held by the Public				5,035	5,232	5,443	5,698	5,827	5,751	5,701	5,613	5,503	5,414	5,269	5,050	n.a.	n.a.

Memorandum:
Gross Domestic Product				13,670	14,201	14,812	15,600	16,445	17,256	18,043	18,856	19,685	20,540	21,426	22,355	82,156	185,018

				As a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
Revenues
	Individual income taxes			8.5	8.5	9.0	9.0	9.8	10.2	10.3	10.4	10.5	10.6	10.8	10.9	9.7	10.2
	Corporate income taxes			2.7	2.6	2.4	2.1	2.0	2.1	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.7	2.1	1.9
	Social insurance taxes			6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.4	6.4
	Other			1.2	1.2	1.2	1.1	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.2	1.3

		Total		18.8	18.7	19.0	18.6	19.3	19.9	19.9	20.0	20.0	20.1	20.2	20.3	19.4	19.8
			On-budget	14.1	14.0	14.3	14.0	14.7	15.3	15.2	15.3	15.4	15.5	15.6	15.7	14.7	15.1
			Off-budget	4.6	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.6	4.7	4.7

Outlays
	Mandatory spending			10.6	10.9	11.2	11.1	11.2	10.9	11.2	11.3	11.5	11.9	12.0	12.1	11.1	11.5
	Discretionary spending			7.6	7.7	7.6	7.3	7.1	6.9	6.7	6.6	6.5	6.4	6.2	6.1	7.1	6.7
	Net interest			1.7	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.2	1.7	1.5

		Total		20.0	20.2	20.4	20.2	20.1	19.4	19.5	19.4	19.4	19.7	19.5	19.3	19.9	19.7
			On-budget	16.7	16.9	17.0	16.8	16.8	16.2	16.2	16.1	16.1	16.2	16.1	15.8	16.6	16.3
			Off-budget	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.4	3.4	3.5	3.5	3.3	3.4

Deficit (-) or Surplus				-1.2	-1.5	-1.3	-1.5	-0.7	0.5	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.7	1.0	-0.5	0.1
	On-budget			-2.5	-2.9	-2.7	-2.9	-2.1	-0.9	-1.0	-0.8	-0.7	-0.8	-0.5	-0.1	-1.9	-1.1
	Off-budget			1.3	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.1	1.4	1.3

Debt Held by the Public				36.8	36.8	36.7	36.5	35.4	33.3	31.6	29.8	28.0	26.4	24.6	22.6	n.a.	n.a.

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Note: n.a. = not applicable.

CBO’s Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays

(Billions of dollars)

																Total,	Total,
				Actual												2009-	2009-
				2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2013	2018


Social Security				581	611	646	682	719	761	807	856	908	965	1,027	1,092	3,615	8,464

Medicare^a				436	454	485	512	561	565	629	671	719	803	841	879	2,752	6,666

Medicaid				191	208	225	243	261	282	304	328	353	381	412	445	1,314	3,232

Income Security
	Supplemental Security Income			36	41	43	45	51	44	50	52	53	60	57	53	234	509
	Earned income and child tax credits			54	56	56	57	58	40	41	41	41	41	41	41	252	458
	Unemployment compensation			33	39	46	43	40	43	45	48	50	52	54	56	217	476
	Food Stamps			35	38	41	42	42	43	44	44	45	46	48	49	212	445
	Family support^b			24	24	24	24	24	24	24	25	25	25	25	25	121	246
	Child nutrition			14	15	16	16	17	18	18	19	20	21	22	23	85	190
	Foster care			7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	37	81

		Subtotal		202	221	233	235	240	220	230	237	243	254	256	257	1,159	2,406

Other Retirement and Disability
	Federal civilian^c			72	75	78	82	85	89	92	96	100	104	107	111	426	945
	Military			44	46	49	50	51	53	54	55	56	58	59	61	257	546
	Veteran^d			36	40	41	42	47	42	46	47	49	54	52	49	218	470
	Other			8	9	8	9	9	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	46	99

		Subtotal		159	169	177	183	192	193	202	209	216	226	229	233	947	2,060

Other Programs
	Commodity Credit Corporation Fund			8	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	37	77
	TRICARE For Life			8	8	8	8	9	9	10	11	12	13	13	15	45	108
	Student loans			7	3	2	4	5	5	3	3	3	2	2	2	20	32
	Universal Service Fund			7	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	42	87
	State Children's Health Insurance
	Program			6	7	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	28	53
	Social services			5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	26	53
	Other			18	34	35	33	31	31	31	29	30	32	38	40	161	329

		Subtotal		59	73	71	72	72	72	71	69	72	74	81	85	357	739

Offsetting Receipts
	Medicare^e			-66	-69	-74	-79	-84	-90	-96	-103	-110	-119	-129	-139	-423	-1,024
	Employers' share of
	employees' retirement			-48	-51	-55	-57	-59	-62	-64	-67	-70	-73	-82	-86	-297	-674
	Other			-64	-65	-54	-54	-56	-57	-60	-62	-61	-62	-57	-60	-282	-583

		Subtotal		-178	-186	-183	-190	-200	-209	-220	-231	-241	-254	-268	-285	-1,001	-2,281

			Total Mandatory Outlays	1,450	1,550	1,654	1,737	1,846	1,884	2,022	2,138	2,270	2,451	2,578	2,706	9,142	21,285

Memorandum:
Mandatory Outlays Excluding
Offsetting Receipts				1,628	1,736	1,836	1,927	2,046	2,092	2,243	2,369	2,511	2,705	2,846	2,991	10,143	23,566
Medicare Outlays Net of
Offsetting Receipts				370	385	411	433	477	475	533	569	609	684	712	740	2,329	5,642

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Note: Spending for the benefit programs shown above generally excludes administrative costs, which are discretionary.

a. Excludes offsetting receipts.

b. Includes Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and various programs that involve payments to states for child support enforcement and family support.

c. Includes Civil Service, Foreign Service, Coast Guard, and other small retirement programs and annuitants’ health benefits.

d. Includes veterans’ compensation, pensions, and life insurance programs.

e. Includes Medicare premiums and amounts paid by states from savings on Medicaid prescription drug costs.

CBO’s Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays

(Billions of dollars)

																Total,	Total,
				Actual												2009-	2009-
				2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2013	2018


Social Security				581	611	646	682	719	761	807	856	908	965	1,027	1,092	3,615	8,464

Medicare^a				436	454	485	512	561	565	629	671	719	803	841	879	2,752	6,666

Medicaid				191	208	225	243	261	282	304	328	353	381	412	445	1,314	3,232

Income Security
	Supplemental Security Income			36	41	43	45	51	44	50	52	53	60	57	53	234	509
	Earned income and child tax credits			54	56	56	57	58	40	41	41	41	41	41	41	252	458
	Unemployment compensation			33	39	46	43	40	43	45	48	50	52	54	56	217	476
	Food Stamps			35	38	41	42	42	43	44	44	45	46	48	49	212	445
	Family support^b			24	24	24	24	24	24	24	25	25	25	25	25	121	246
	Child nutrition			14	15	16	16	17	18	18	19	20	21	22	23	85	190
	Foster care			7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	37	81

		Subtotal		202	221	233	235	240	220	230	237	243	254	256	257	1,159	2,406

Other Retirement and Disability
	Federal civilian^c			72	75	78	82	85	89	92	96	100	104	107	111	426	945
	Military			44	46	49	50	51	53	54	55	56	58	59	61	257	546
	Veteran^d			36	40	41	42	47	42	46	47	49	54	52	49	218	470
	Other			8	9	8	9	9	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	46	99

		Subtotal		159	169	177	183	192	193	202	209	216	226	229	233	947	2,060

Other Programs
	Commodity Credit Corporation Fund			8	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	37	77
	TRICARE For Life			8	8	8	8	9	9	10	11	12	13	13	15	45	108
	Student loans			7	3	2	4	5	5	3	3	3	2	2	2	20	32
	Universal Service Fund			7	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	42	87
	State Children's Health Insurance
	Program			6	7	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	28	53
	Social services			5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	26	53
	Other			18	34	35	33	31	31	31	29	30	32	38	40	161	329

		Subtotal		59	73	71	72	72	72	71	69	72	74	81	85	357	739

Offsetting Receipts
	Medicare^e			-66	-69	-74	-79	-84	-90	-96	-103	-110	-119	-129	-139	-423	-1,024
	Employers' share of
	employees' retirement			-48	-51	-55	-57	-59	-62	-64	-67	-70	-73	-82	-86	-297	-674
	Other			-64	-65	-54	-54	-56	-57	-60	-62	-61	-62	-57	-60	-282	-583

		Subtotal		-178	-186	-183	-190	-200	-209	-220	-231	-241	-254	-268	-285	-1,001	-2,281

			Total Mandatory Outlays	1,450	1,550	1,654	1,737	1,846	1,884	2,022	2,138	2,270	2,451	2,578	2,706	9,142	21,285

Memorandum:
Mandatory Outlays Excluding
Offsetting Receipts				1,628	1,736	1,836	1,927	2,046	2,092	2,243	2,369	2,511	2,705	2,846	2,991	10,143	23,566
Medicare Outlays Net of
Offsetting Receipts				370	385	411	433	477	475	533	569	609	684	712	740	2,329	5,642

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Note: Spending for the benefit programs shown above generally excludes administrative costs, which are discretionary.

a. Excludes offsetting receipts.

b. Includes Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and various programs that involve payments to states for child support enforcement and family support.

c. Includes Civil Service, Foreign Service, Coast Guard, and other small retirement programs and annuitants’ health benefits.

d. Includes veterans’ compensation, pensions, and life insurance programs.

e. Includes Medicare premiums and amounts paid by states from savings on Medicaid prescription drug costs.

CBO’s Baseline Projections of Federal Debt

(Billions of dollars)

			Actual
			2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018


Debt Held by the Public at the
Beginning of the Year			4,829	5,035	5,232	5,443	5,698	5,827	5,751	5,701	5,613	5,503	5,414	5,269

Changes to Debt Held by the Public
	Deficit or surplus (-)		163	219	198	241	117	-87	-61	-96	-117	-95	-151	-223
	Other means of financing		43	-22	13	14	12	11	10	9	7	6	5	4

		Total	206	197	211	255	129	-76	-51	-87	-111	-88	-146	-219

Debt Held by the Public at the End of the Year			5,035	5,232	5,443	5,698	5,827	5,751	5,701	5,613	5,503	5,414	5,269	5,050

Memorandum:
Debt Held by the Public at the End of the Year as a Percentage of GDP			36.8	36.8	36.7	36.5	35.4	33.3	31.6	29.8	28.0	26.4	24.6	22.6

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the Deficit or Surplus Since January 2008

(Billions of dollars)

																	Total,	Total,
																	2009-	2009-
						2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2013	2018


Total Deficit (-) or Surplus as Projected in January 2008						-219	-198	-241	-117	87	61	96	117	95	151	223	-408	274

Changes to Revenue Projections
	Legislative					-114	-12	12	9	8	6	4	2	1	1	1	22	31
	Economic					-1	-15	-6	8	12	9	5	5	6	6	7	7	36
	Technical					6	3	4	2	1	*	-1	-1	*	*	-1	11	8

					Total Revenue Changes	-108	-24	9	19	21	15	8	6	7	7	8	40	76

Changes to Outlay Projections
	Legislative
		Mandatory
			Refundable tax credits			38	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
			Other			*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*

				Subtotal, mandatory		38	4	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	4	4

		Discretionary				*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	2	3

		Net interest (Debt service)				1	4	6	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	31	73

				Subtotal, legislative		39	8	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	10	37	80

	Economic
		Mandatory
			Medicare^a			*	-1	-2	-2	-2	-3	-3	-4	-5	-5	-6	-10	-34
			Social Security			0	0	-2	-4	-4	-4	-4	-3	-3	-2	-2	-14	-28
			Other			-1	-1	-2	-3	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	-1	-11	-19

				Subtotal, mandatory		-1	-2	-6	-9	-9	-9	-9	-9	-9	-9	-10	-36	-81

		Discretionary				0	-1	-1	-1	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	-4	-4

		Net interest
			Debt service			*	*	-2	-3	-5	-7	-8	-10	-11	-12	-14	-18	-73
			Rate effect/inflation			-10	-31	-25	-19	-9	-7	-5	-3	-2	-2	-2	-92	-106

				Subtotal, net interest		-10	-32	-27	-22	-15	-14	-13	-13	-13	-15	-16	-109	-180

				Subtotal, economic		-10	-35	-34	-32	-24	-24	-23	-21	-22	-24	-26	-149	-265


	Technical
		Mandatory
			Medicare^a			1	5	8	13	12	16	20	23	26	26	26	56	177
			Veterans’ benefits and services			1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	8	18
			Spectrum auction and OCS receipts			-11	1	-1	*	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	-5
			Other			-1	2	1	1	1	*	1	*	*	*	2	5	8

				Subtotal, mandatory		-10	9	9	16	14	18	22	25	28	28	29	66	198

		Discretionary				3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	8	16

		Net interest
			Debt service			*	*	*	1	3	4	5	7	9	11	13	8	54
			Other			8	1	-2	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-2	-2	*	1	-4
						_	_	__	_	_	___	__	__	__	__	__	_	__
				Subtotal, net interest		8	1	-2	3	4	3	5	6	7	9	13	9	49

				Subtotal, technical		1	11	9	21	20	22	28	32	36	38	44	83	263

					Total Outlay Changes	30	-16	-18	-5	3	6	14	19	23	24	29	-29	79

Total Impact on the Deficit or Surplus^b						-138	-8	28	24	18	9	-6	-13	-16	-17	-21	69	-4

Total Deficit (-) or Surplus as Projected in March 2008						-357	-207	-213	-93	105	70	90	104	79	134	202	-339	270

Memorandum:
Total Legislative Changes^b						-153	-20	5	2	*	-2	-4	-6	-7	-8	-9	-15	-49
Total Economic Changes^b						10	20	27	41	36	32	27	26	28	30	33	156	300
Total Technical Changes^b						5	-8	-5	-19	-18	-22	-29	-33	-37	-39	-45	-72	-255

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Note: * = between -$500 million and $500 million; OCS = Outer Continental Shelf.

a. Includes offsetting receipts.

b. Negative numbers indicate an increase in the deficit or a decrease in the surplus.

CBO’s Estimate of the Effect of the President’s Budget on Baseline Deficits or Surpluses

(Billions of dollars)

																			Total,	Total,
																			2009-	2009-
								2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2013	2018



Total Deficit (-) or Surplus as Projected in CBO’s March 2008 Baseline								-357	-207	-213	-93	105	70	90	104	79	134	202	-339	270

Effect of the President’s Proposals
	Revenues
		Extension of expiring EGTRRA and JGTRRA provisions
			General tax rates, child tax credit, and tax brackets^a					0	0	0	-96	-152	-155	-158	-162	-167	-171	-176	-403	-1,237
			Estate and gift taxes					0	-1	-2	-31	-69	-77	-84	-91	-97	-105	-112	-181	-670
			Tax rates on dividends and capital gains					0	*	-2	-18	-21	-42	-43	-45	-47	-49	-51	-82	-318
			Expensing for small businesses					0	0	0	-3	-6	-4	-3	-2	-2	-1	-1	-13	-23
			Education, retirement, and other provisions					0	0	0	-1	-2	-2	-2	-3	-3	-3	-3	-5	-18

				Subtotal, proposed extensions				0	-1	-4	-148	-250	-280	-291	-303	-316	-330	-344	-683	-2,266

		Health insurance taxation and standard deduction^a						0	-17	-13	5	24	45	46	56	75	94	115	43	429
		Research and experimentation tax credit						-3	-5	-6	-8	-9	-10	-11	-12	-13	-15	-16	-38	-105
		Air transportation taxes						0	0	-7	-8	-9	-9	-10	-10	-11	-11	-12	-33	-87
		AMT extension						-6	-70	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-55	-55
		Other proposals^a						*	-1	-1	-1	-5	-3	-1	-1	-2	-2	-2	-12	-21

						Total Effect on Revenues		-9	-94	-16	-161	-248	-258	-268	-271	-267	-263	-258	-777	-2,105
	Outlays
		Mandatory
			Medicare					*	-9	-23	-34	-40	-46	-52	-58	-65	-73	-81	-151	-481
			Social Security individual accounts					0	0	0	0	1	1	23	47	67	72	78	2	287
			Earned income and child tax credits					0	3	1	*	20	19	18	17	17	16	16	42	126
			Medicaid and SCHIP					*	-2	-1	-2	-3	-3	-3	-3	-2	-2	-2	-11	-24
			PBGC premiums					0	*	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-9	-19
			Social Services Block Grant					0	0	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-7	-15
			Other proposals					1	-1	-1	-3	-1	-1	-2	*	-1	-3	-4	-8	-18

					Subtotal, mandatory			1	-11	-28	-43	-27	-34	-20	*	11	6	2	-143	-143

		Discretionary
			Defense					28	50	-2	-48	-71	-81	-85	-88	-90	-92	-94	-151	-599
			Nondefense					1	-1	-23	-41	-56	-68	-74	-76	-79	-82	-84	-189	-583

					Subtotal, discretionary			29	49	-25	-89	-127	-148	-159	-164	-169	-173	-178	-340	-1,183

		Net interest						*	3	5	7	11	15	21	27	33	40	46	41	207

							Total Effect on Outlays	30	41	-48	-125	-143	-167	-158	-138	-125	-127	-129	-442	-1,119

Total Impact on the Deficit or Surplus^b								-39	-136	31	-35	-105	-91	-110	-133	-143	-136	-129	-336	-987

Total Deficit (-) or Surplus Under the President’s Proposals								-396	-342	-182	-129	*	-21	-20	-29	-64	-3	73	-674	-717

Memorandum:
Total Deficit (-) or Surplus Under the President’s Proposals as Estimated by OMB								-410	-407	-160	-95	48	29	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	-585	n.a.

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Joint Committee on Taxation.

Note: * = between -$500 million and $500 million; EGTRRA = Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001; JGTRRA = Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003; AMT = alternative minimum tax; SCHIP = State Children’s Health Insurance Program; PBGC = Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation; OMB = Office of Management and Budget.

a. The estimates shown include the effect on revenues only; however, refundable earned income and child tax credits are also affected and shown in the outlay section of the table.

b. Negative numbers indicate an increase in the deficit or a decrease in the surplus.