Contents

1

The Federal Budget Outlook Over the Long Run

Introduction and Summary

The Outlook for Federal Spending

The Outlook for Revenues

Projected Deficits and Debt

How Would Rising Federal Debt Affect the Economy?

What Are the Costs of Delaying Action on the Budget?

2

The Long-Term Outlook for Medicare and Medicaid

Overview of the Medicare Program

Overview of the Medicaid Program

Growth in the Programs’ Costs

Projections of the Programs’ Costs

Slowing the Growth of Health Care Costs

3

The Long-Term Outlook for Social Security

How Social Security Operates

The Outlook for Social Security Spending

Slowing the Growth of Social Security Spending

4

The Long-Term Outlook for Other Federal Spending

Discretionary Spending

Other Mandatory Spending

5

The Long-Term Outlook for Revenues

Revenues Over the Past 50 Years

Factors Affecting Future Federal Revenues

Revenue Projections Under CBO’s Long-Term Budget Scenarios

Implications of the Long-Term Budget Scenarios for Revenues