CONTENTS

Introduction and Summary

Overview of the U.S. Health Care System

Historical Growth of Health Care Spending

Factors Underlying the Historical Growth in Health Care Spending

Historical Trends

Projections of Health Care Spending

CBO's Assumptions About Future Spending on Health Care

Projections of Health Spending

Consumption of Health Care and of Other Goods and Services

Projections Under Alternative Assumptions

Appendix A: Medicare and Medicaid: An Overview

Appendix B: Computing Historical Excess Cost Growth

Appendix C: Projected Health Care Spending Under an Alternative Fiscal Scenario

Appendix D: Projected Health Care Spending When Excess Cost Growth Is Assumed to Continue at Historical Averages

 

Tables

1. National Spending on Health Care by Source of Funds, 2005

2. Real per Capita Cost Growth in Medicare, Medicaid, and All Other Spending on Health Care

3. Excess Cost Growth in Medicare, Medicaid, and All Other Spending on Health Care8

4. Assumptions About Excess Cost Growth Over the Long Term

A-1. Medicare Spending by Type of Service, 2006

A-2. Medicaid Enrollees and Federal Benefit Payments, by Category of Enrollee, 2006

Figures

1. National Spending on Health Care by Source of Funds, 1975 to 2005

2. Spending on Health Care as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product, 1960 to 2005

3. Excess Cost Growth in Medicare, Medicaid, and All Other Spending on Health Care

4. Projected Spending on Health Care as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

5. Federal Spending for Medicare and Medicaid as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Under Different Assumptions About Excess Cost Growth

6. CBO's and the Trustees' Projections of Spending on Medicare as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

C-1. Comparison of CBO's Projections of Spending on Health Care: Extending the Baseline vs. Incorporating an Adjustment in Physician Fees Under Medicare

D-1. Projected Spending on Health Care Under an Assumption That Excess Cost Growth Continues at Historical Averages

 

Boxes

1. What Policy Options Can Help Reduce Spending on Medicare and Medicaid?

2. The Effect of the Aging of the Population on Spending on Medicare and Medicaid

 


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