CBO’s Economic Projections for 2009 to 2019

Appendix
A

CBO’s Economic Projections for 2009 to 2019

The tables in this appendix expand on the information in the body of the report by showing the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) year-by-year economic projections for 2009 to 2019 (by calendar year in Table A-1 and by fiscal year in Table A-2). CBO does not forecast cyclical fluctuations in its projections for years after 2011. Instead, the projected values shown in the tables for 2012 to 2019 reflect CBO’s assessment of average values for that period. That assessment takes into account economic and demographic trends but does not attempt to forecast the frequency and size of ups and downs in the business cycle.

Table A-1.

CBO’s Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Calendar Years 2009 to 2019
Untitled Document

Estimated    Forecast
Projected

2008^a 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Nominal GDP

(Billions of dollars) 14,257 14,047 14,576 15,233 15,950 16,684 17,421 18,138 18,873 19,624 20,381 21,164



Nominal GDP

(Percentage change) 3.3 -1.5 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8



Real GDP

(Percentage change) 1.1 -3.0 2.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2



GDP Price Index

(Percentage change) 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6



PCE Price Indexb

(Percentage change) 3.3 -0.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6



Core PCE Price Index^c

(Percentage change) 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6



Consumer Price Index^d

(Percentage change) 3.8 -0.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9



Core Consumer Price Indexe

(Percentage change) 2.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9



Unemployment Rate

(Percent) 5.8 8.8 9.0 7.7 6.6 5.7 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8



Three-Month Treasury

Bill Rate (Percent) 1.4 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.0 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8



Ten-Year Treasury

Note Rate (Percent) 3.7 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6



Tax Bases

(Billions of dollars)

Economic profits 1,496 1,269 1,386 1,547 1,656 1,764 1,812 1,822 1,859 1,884 1,915 1,940

Wages and salaries 6,543 6,496 6,743 6,953 7,338 7,662 7,990 8,315 8,651 8,997 9,347 9,709



Tax Bases

(Percentage of GDP)

Economic profits 10.5 9.0 9.5 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.2

Wages and salaries 45.9 46.2 46.3 45.6 46.0 45.9 45.9 45.8 45.8 45.8 45.9 45.9

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.

Note: GDP = gross domestic product; PCE = personal consumption expenditure. Percentage changes are measured from one year to the next.

a. Figures for the consumer price index, the unemployment rate, and the interest rates are actual values; other 2008 figures are estimates.

b. The PCE chained price index.

c. The PCE chained price index excluding prices for food and energy.

d. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.

e. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.

Table A-2.

CBO’s Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019
Untitled Document

Actual Forecast
Projected

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Nominal GDP

(Billions of dollars) 14,222 14,057 14,405 15,061 15,774 16,496 17,241 17,957 18,688 19,436 20,191 20,966



Nominal GDP

(Percentage change) 4.3 -1.2 2.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8



Real GDP

(Percentage change) 1.9 -2.9 1.5 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2



GDP Price Index

(Percentage change) 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6



PCE Price Index^a

(Percentage change) 3.7 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6



Core PCE Price Index^b

(Percentage change) 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6



Consumer Price Index^c

(Percentage change) 4.4 -0.5 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9



Core Consumer Price Index^d

(Percentage change) 2.4 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9



Unemployment Rate

(Percent) 5.3 8.2 9.2 8.0 6.8 5.9 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8



Three-Month Treasury

Bill Rate (Percent) 2.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8



Ten-Year Treasury

Note Rate (Percent) 3.9 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6



Tax Bases

(Billions of dollars)

Economic profits 1,563 1,285 1,340 1,512 1,630 1,740 1,807 1,816 1,852 1,877 1,909 1,933

Wages and salaries 6,521 6,500 6,647 6,901 7,258 7,579 7,909 8,232 8,566 8,910 9,258 9,617



Tax Bases

(Percentage of GDP)

Economic profits 11.0 9.1 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.2

Wages and salaries 45.9 46.2 46.1 45.8 46.0 45.9 45.9 45.8 45.8 45.8 45.9 45.9

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.

Note: GDP = gross domestic product; PCE = personal consumption expenditure. Percentage changes are measured from one year to the next.

a. The PCE chained price index.

b. The PCE chained price index excluding prices for food and energy.

c. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.

d. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.

		Estimated	Forecast			Projected
		2008^a	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019


Nominal GDP
(Billions of dollars)		14,257	14,047	14,576	15,233	15,950	16,684	17,421	18,138	18,873	19,624	20,381	21,164

Nominal GDP
(Percentage change)		3.3	-1.5	3.8	4.5	4.7	4.6	4.4	4.1	4.1	4.0	3.9	3.8

Real GDP
(Percentage change)		1.1	-3.0	2.9	4.0	4.1	4.0	3.5	2.7	2.5	2.4	2.3	2.2

GDP Price Index
(Percentage change)		2.2	1.5	0.8	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.4	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.6

PCE Price Indexb
(Percentage change)		3.3	-0.1	1.1	1.0	0.8	0.8	1.1	1.4	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6

Core PCE Price Index^c
(Percentage change)		2.2	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.5	0.6	1.0	1.4	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6

Consumer Price Index^d
(Percentage change)		3.8	-0.7	1.4	1.2	1.0	1.0	1.2	1.6	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9

Core Consumer Price Indexe
(Percentage change)		2.3	1.5	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.8	1.2	1.6	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9

Unemployment Rate
(Percent)		5.8	8.8	9.0	7.7	6.6	5.7	5.1	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8

Three-Month Treasury
Bill Rate (Percent)		1.4	0.3	0.9	1.8	3.0	3.9	4.4	4.7	4.7	4.8	4.8	4.8

Ten-Year Treasury
Note Rate (Percent)		3.7	2.9	3.4	4.0	4.6	5.0	5.3	5.4	5.5	5.6	5.6	5.6

Tax Bases
(Billions of dollars)
	Economic profits	1,496	1,269	1,386	1,547	1,656	1,764	1,812	1,822	1,859	1,884	1,915	1,940
	Wages and salaries	6,543	6,496	6,743	6,953	7,338	7,662	7,990	8,315	8,651	8,997	9,347	9,709

Tax Bases
(Percentage of GDP)
	Economic profits	10.5	9.0	9.5	10.2	10.4	10.6	10.4	10.0	9.9	9.6	9.4	9.2
	Wages and salaries	45.9	46.2	46.3	45.6	46.0	45.9	45.9	45.8	45.8	45.8	45.9	45.9

		Actual	Forecast			Projected
		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019


Nominal GDP
(Billions of dollars)		14,222	14,057	14,405	15,061	15,774	16,496	17,241	17,957	18,688	19,436	20,191	20,966

Nominal GDP
(Percentage change)		4.3	-1.2	2.5	4.6	4.7	4.6	4.5	4.2	4.1	4.0	3.9	3.8

Real GDP
(Percentage change)		1.9	-2.9	1.5	4.0	4.1	4.0	3.7	2.9	2.5	2.4	2.3	2.2

GDP Price Index
(Percentage change)		2.4	1.7	0.9	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.3	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.6

PCE Price Index^a
(Percentage change)		3.7	0.2	1.0	1.0	0.8	0.8	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6

Core PCE Price Index^b
(Percentage change)		2.2	1.3	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.3	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6

Consumer Price Index^c
(Percentage change)		4.4	-0.5	1.2	1.3	1.0	0.9	1.1	1.5	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9

Core Consumer Price Index^d
(Percentage change)		2.4	1.6	1.2	0.9	0.8	0.7	1.1	1.5	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9

Unemployment Rate
(Percent)		5.3	8.2	9.2	8.0	6.8	5.9	5.2	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8

Three-Month Treasury
Bill Rate (Percent)		2.1	0.3	0.8	1.6	2.7	3.7	4.4	4.6	4.7	4.7	4.8	4.8

Ten-Year Treasury
Note Rate (Percent)		3.9	2.9	3.3	3.9	4.5	4.9	5.2	5.4	5.5	5.6	5.6	5.6

Tax Bases
(Billions of dollars)
	Economic profits	1,563	1,285	1,340	1,512	1,630	1,740	1,807	1,816	1,852	1,877	1,909	1,933
	Wages and salaries	6,521	6,500	6,647	6,901	7,258	7,579	7,909	8,232	8,566	8,910	9,258	9,617

Tax Bases
(Percentage of GDP)
	Economic profits	11.0	9.1	9.3	10.0	10.3	10.5	10.5	10.1	9.9	9.7	9.5	9.2
	Wages and salaries	45.9	46.2	46.1	45.8	46.0	45.9	45.9	45.8	45.8	45.8	45.9	45.9