Congressional Budget OfficeSkip Navigation
Home Red Bullet Publications Red Bullet Cost Estimates Red Bullet About CBO Red Bullet Press Red Bullet Employment Red Bullet Contact Us Red Bullet Director's Blog Red Bullet   RSS
 
Budget and Economic Information
Monthly Budget Review
Budget Projections
Economic Projections
Discretionary Appropriations Status
Historical Budget Data
Spreadsheets for Selected Estimates and Projections
Glossary of Budgetary and Economic Terms
 

Table 1. 

CBO’s Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2008 to 2018

 
     
Actual
Forecast
 
Projected Annual Average
     
2007
2008
2009
 
2010 to 2013
2014 to 2018
                           
     
Year to Year (Percentage change)
                           
Nominal GDP (Billions of dollars)
13,843
14,358
14,946
18,278
a
22,625
b
Nominal GDP
4.9
3.7
4.1
5.2
  
4.4
  
Real GDP
2.2
1.9
2.3
3.2
  
2.5
  
GDP Price Index
2.7
1.8
1.7
1.9
  
1.9
  
PCE Price Indexc
2.5
2.4
1.8
1.8
  
1.9
  
Core PCE Price Indexd
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.8
  
1.8
  
Consumer Price Indexe
2.9
2.8
1.9
2.1
  
2.2
  
Core Consumer Price Indexf
2.3
2.2
1.9
2.1
  
2.2
  
                           
     
Calendar Year Average (Percent)
                           
Unemployment Rate
4.6
5.2
5.5
4.9
4.8
  
Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate
4.4
2.1
2.4
4.6
4.7
  
Ten-Year Treasury Note Rate
4.6
3.6
3.8
5.1
5.2
  
Tax Bases (Billions of dollars)                      
  Economic profits
1,601
1,588
1,588
1,831
a
2,310
b
  Wages and salaries
6,367
6,651
6,936
8,421
a
10,364
b
Tax Bases (Percentage of GDP)
 
 
  Economic profits
11.6
11.1
10.6
10.2
  
10.0
  
  Wages and salaries
46.0
46.3
46.4
46.2
  
45.9
  
                           
     
Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter (Percentage change)
                           
Nominal GDP
5.1
3.3
4.8
5.1
4.3
  
Real GDP
2.5
1.6
3.0
3.1
2.4
  
GDP Price Index
2.6
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.9
  
PCE Price Indexc
3.4
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
  
Core PCE Price Indexd
2.1
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
  
Consumer Price Indexe
4.0
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.2
  
Core Consumer Price Indexf
2.3
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.2
  
 

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.

Note: GDP = gross domestic product; PCE = personal consumption expenditure.

a. Level in 2013.

b. Level in 2018.

c. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index.

d. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index excluding prices for food and energy.

e. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.

f. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.

Table 2. 

CBO’s Current and Previous Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2008 to 2018

 
 
 
Actual
Forecast
 
Projected Annual Average
 
 
 
2007
2008
2009
 
2010 to 2013
2014 to 2018
                           
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nominal GDP (Billions of dollars)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
13,843
 
14,358
 
14,946
 
 
18,278
a
22,625
b
 
 
January 2008
13,828
 
14,330
 
14,997
 
 
18,243
a
22,593
b
Nominal GDP (Percentage change)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
4.9
 
3.7
 
4.1
 
5.2
 
4.4
 
 
 
January 2008
4.8
 
3.6
 
4.7
 
5.0
 
4.4
 
Real GDP (Percentage change)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
2.2
 
1.9
 
2.3
 
3.2
 
2.5
 
 
 
January 2008
2.2
 
1.7
 
2.8
 
3.1
 
2.5
 
GDP Price Index (Percentage change)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
2.7
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
 
 
January 2008
2.5
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
Consumer Price Indexc (Percentage change)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
2.9
 
2.8
 
1.9
 
2.1
 
2.2
 
 
 
January 2008
2.8
 
2.9
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
4.6
 
5.2
 
5.5
 
4.9
 
4.8
 
 
 
January 2008
4.6
 
5.1
 
5.4
 
4.9
 
4.8
 
Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate (Percent)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
4.4
 
2.1
 
2.4
 
4.6
 
4.7
 
 
 
January 2008
4.4
 
3.2
 
4.2
 
4.6
 
4.7
 
Ten-Year Treasury Note Rate (Percent)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
4.6
 
3.6
 
3.8
 
5.1
 
5.2
 
 
 
January 2008
4.6
 
4.2
 
4.9
 
5.2
 
5.2
 
Tax Bases (Billions of dollars)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Economic profits
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
1,601
 
1,588
 
1,588
 
 
1,831
a
2,310
b
 
 
January 2008
1,599
 
1,620
 
1,649
 
 
1,842
a
2,320
b
 
Wages and salaries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
6,367
 
6,651
 
6,936
 
 
8,421
a
10,364
b
 
 
January 2008
6,368
 
6,615
 
6,913
 
 
8,401
a
10,354
b
Tax Bases (Percentage of GDP)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Economic profits
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
11.6
 
11.1
 
10.6
 
 
10.2
 
10.0
 
 
 
January 2008
11.6
 
11.3
 
11.0
 
 
10.3
 
10.1
 
 
Wages and salaries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
46.0
 
46.3
 
46.4
 
46.2
 
45.9
 
 
 
January 2008
46.0
 
46.2
 
46.1
 
46.1
 
45.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Memorandum:
 
 
 
 
 
Real Potential GDP (Percentage change)
 
 
 
 
 
 
February 2008
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.7
2.6
 
2.5
 
 
January 2008
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5