Under current law, outlays for Social Security, major health care programs, and net interest will grow over the coming decade, CBO estimates, while spending for other programs will decline relative to the size of the economy.
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How will the labor market evolve? How rapidly will potential and actual output grow? What will be the paths of inflation and interest rates? Director Doug Elmendorf addressed these and other questions about CBO's outlook for the economy.
In calendar year 2013, ARRA raised real GDP by between 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent and increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by 0.1 million to 0.5 million compared with what would have occurred otherwise, CBO estimates.
CBO reports annually to the Congress on programs funded for the current fiscal year whose authorizations of appropriations have expired and on programs whose authorizations of appropriations will expire during the current fiscal year.
In recent years, debt held by the public has been significantly greater relative to GDP than at any time since just after World War II; under current law it will continue to be quite high by historical standards during the next decade.
During his presentation, Director Doug Elmendorf emphasized that federal debt remains on an unsustainable path, and the composition of federal spending is changing dramatically from what it has been in the past.
Director Doug Elmendorf spoke with a group of reporters who gather regularly at the invitation of the Christian Science Monitor. He opened with a discussion of the slow recovery of the labor market.
Raising the minimum wage would increase family income for many low-wage workers, moving some of them out of poverty. But some jobs for low-wage workers would probably be eliminated and the income of those workers would fall substantially.
CBO answers a few questions it has received about last week’s analysis of the labor market effects of the Affordable Care Act.
The federal government ran a budget deficit of $184 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2014, CBO estimates—$107 billion less than the shortfall recorded in the same span last year.