In calendar year 2013, ARRA raised real GDP by between 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent and increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by 0.1 million to 0.5 million compared with what would have occurred otherwise, CBO estimates.
CBO reports to the Congress on: programs funded for the current fiscal year for which authorizations of appropriations have expired; and programs for which authorizations of appropriations will expire during the current fiscal year.
In recent years, debt held by the public has been significantly greater relative to GDP than at any time since just after World War II; under current law it will continue to be quite high by historical standards during the next decade.
During his presentation, Director Doug Elmendorf emphasized that federal debt remains on an unsustainable path, and the composition of federal spending is changing dramatically from what it has been in the past.
Raising the minimum wage would increase family income for many low-wage workers, moving some of them out of poverty. But some jobs for low-wage workers would probably be eliminated and the income of those workers would fall substantially.
The federal government ran a budget deficit of $184 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2014, CBO estimates—$107 billion less than the shortfall recorded in the same span last year.
Director Doug Elmendorf testified on CBO’s latest projections for the budget and economy. The video of that testimony is now available.